HOCKEYSTATS.COM GLOSSARY
The signature hockey visualization we offer are the JFresh Player Cards. These have been a recognizable part of online hockey discourse for over four seasons.
The first thing to recognize is that they are ultimately estimates of player performance. While it may be easy and tempting to declare that the player with the higher number in that big box is objectively superior, what these cards are really designed to do is present a player's current standard of performance, to the extent possible, in some of the most important categories of play.
You might notice that the number says Projected WAR. All of the Wins Above Replacement, goals, and assists metrics use weighted averages of the three most recent seasons, with weights chosen based on testing of past results to maximize predictiveness of future results. Player results in any one season are unpredictable, whether you're looking at goals, points, finishing, or more advanced metrics, so as tempting as it can be to focus solely on just one year, you're better served by considering a player's larger track record.
You also might notice that the card shows percentages and not just stats. That's because we use percentile rankings to display the data. If a forward is 98% in EV Offence, for example, that means they rank higher than 98% of their peers in that stat - they're in the top 2%. There are downsides to using percentiles that should be understood, namely that these metrics follow a normal distribution with outliers on either end. That means that the difference between 100th percentile and 95th percentile is much larger than the difference between 55th and 50th. It's also worth mentioning, since this is often mistaken, that in every category players are being compared to all players at their position (forward or defenceman) with over 200 minutes of 5v5 ice time in the most recent season -- not just those with the same time-on-ice role.
Context Data
Some of the numbers on the card are there purely to provide context. They do not affect the WAR numbers.
- Position: The position the player plays according to NHL_Rosters (formerly of CapFriendly, now of PuckPedia, the only accurate source of detailed player positions).
- Age: Age as of the beginning of the season.
- Time-On-Ice: Time on ice per game translated into a role based on ice time around the league.
- Cap: The cap hit and years remaining on their contract, per PuckPedia.
- Competition: The percentile ranking of Quality of Competition a player faces on average, based on time-on-ice. A higher ranking means he is deployed on average against higher lines, and the inverse. This is already accounted for by WAR, so it should just be taken as insight into how a player is deployed by his coaches and matched against by opposing coaches.
- Teammates: The percentile ranking of Quality of Teammates a player plays with on average, based on time-on-ice. A higher ranking means he frequently plays with his team's top TOI players, while a lower one means he's probably in a depth or fourth line role. Similarly is already accounted for by WAR.
WAR Data
- EV Offence: Projected Even Strength Offence WAR, meaning the wins a player provides to his team through his isolated impact on scoring chances (expected goals) for when he's on the ice at even strength.
- EV Defence: Projected Even Strength Defence WAR, meaning the wins a player provides to his team through his isolated impact on scoring chances (expected goals) against when he's on the ice at even strength.
- PP: Same as EV Offence but on the powerplay. If the player plays fewer than one minute per game on the powerplay it is listed as NA.
- PK: Same as EV Defence but on the penalty kill. If the player plays fewer than one minute per game on the penalty kill it is listed as NA.
- Finishing: The projected WAR a player provides by finishing his scoring chances, measured by goals scored above expected. This is a very important stat for forwards because it's the most direct ways they create goals and therefore wins for their team compared to a replacement-level player.
- Penalties: The projected wins a player provides through his penalty differential on non-offsetting penalties. If you draw more penalties than you take, you're helping your team and rank more highly.
- Proj. WAR %: For forwards, the sum of all of the above numbers, expressed as a percentile. For defencemen, the sum of all the above numbers except for finishing.
Extra Data
- Goals: A player's percentile ranking in projected goals per 60 minutes at 5v5, based on a weighted average of the past three seasons.
- 1st Assists: The same, but with 5v5 primary assists per 60.
We are very fortunate to have had the chance to collaborate with hockey researcher Corey Sznajder of AllThreeZones on some visualizations showcasing his manually tracked data points. Corey has been a keystone member of the hockey analytics movement for years, giving the public access to the kinds of metrics that otherwise would be exclusively available to NHL teams and broadcasters. Since the 2016-17 season, he has developed a tracking system that includes everything from passes to zone entries to rush defence to puck retrievals and plenty in between, resulting in a rich and incredibly thorough database spanning nine seasons. His full data set and dashboards are available on www.allthreezones.com.
Our main collab with Corey has been on the Microstat Player Cards, available to subscribers in the $10 tier. These cards display results purely from the most recent NHL season, including the TopDownHockey WAR metrics displayed. The microstats are taken from a representative sample of games tracked -- he can't track all of a team's games, but his research has shown that results level off after a sufficient sample is taken. With that in mind, a player only has a microstat card if over 150 5v5 minutes have been tracked.
Here's a runthrough of the metrics displayed on those cards.
WAR Data
- EV Offence: Projected Even Strength Offence WAR, meaning the wins a player provides to his team through his isolated impact on scoring chances (expected goals) for when he's on the ice at even strength.
- EV Defence: Projected Even Strength Defence WAR, meaning the wins a player provides to his team through his isolated impact on scoring chances (expected goals) against when he's on the ice at even strength.
- PP: Same as EV Offence but on the powerplay. If the player plays fewer than one minute per game on the powerplay it is listed as NA.
- PK: Same as EV Defence but on the penalty kill. If the player plays fewer than one minute per game on the penalty kill it is listed as NA.
- Finishing: The projected WAR a player provides by finishing his scoring chances, measured by goals scored above expected. This is a very important stat for forwards because it's the most direct ways they create goals and therefore wins for their team compared to a replacement-level player.
- Penalties: The projected wins a player provides through his penalty differential on non-offsetting penalties. If you draw more penalties than you take, you're helping your team and rank more highly.
AllThreeZones Tracked Data - Forwards
All microstats on the card are at 5v5 and per 60 minutes
- Goals: 5v5 goals per 60
- Chances: Shot attempts judged to be legitimate scoring chances. In the dataset, players score on 15.6% of chances (as opposed to 1.4% on non-chances)
- Shots: All shot attempts. A player who grades out higher in shots than chances might take a lot of shots from the perimeter, while a player with a higher rate of chances is likely more selective with their shooting.
- In-Zone Shots: Shot attempts taken on in-zone possession plays, either off cycles or forechecks. This encapsulates all attempts that do not come off the rush.
- Rush Shots: Shot attempts taken off the rush, i.e. plays where a controlled entry has led directly and quickly to the attempt
- Shots off HD Passes: Shot attempts off of high-danger passes, i.e. passes to the slot from behind the net or across the slot. A player with a high rating in shots off HD passes is likely getting to dangerous areas and playing with talented playmaking linemates.
- Zone Entries: Entries into the offensive zone, either by carrying or dumping the puck in
- Primary Assists: 5v5 first assists per 60
- Chance Assists: Passes leading directly to a scoring chance. A player who ranks well in this metric is setting his linemates up and getting the goalie moving ahead of shots.
- Primary Shot Assists: Passes leading directly to a shot attempt. A player who grades out higher in shot assists than chance assists is likely funneling pucks to the point, which while often advantageous for maintaining offensive-zone possession has a much lower ceiling (shots off low-to-high passes have only a ~2.5% chance of going in)
- In-Zone Shot Assists: Passes leading directly to shot attempts off in-zone possessions like cycles and forechecks
- Rush Shot Assists: Passes leading directly to shot attempts off the rush
- High-Danger Passes: Passes to the slot from behind the net or across the slot. A player who generates these plays at a high rate is giving his linemates excellent opportunities to score and likely outperforming expected goal metrics as well.
- Zone Exits: Exits out of the defensive zone, either by carrying, passing, or clearing the puck out. Players who grade out well in this stat are likely active recovering pucks in their own end.
- Skating Speed: A non-AllThreeZones stat, this is a metric based on the NHL's own Edge Tracking Data. It's a combination of top speed and the frequency of 20+ mile-per-hour bursts and gives a sense both of how fast a player can skate and how often they reach a high speed relative to their peers
- Chance Contributions: Chances + Chance Assists
- Shot Contributions: Shot attempts + Primary Shot Assists
- In-Zone Offence: In-Zone Shot attempts + In-Zone Shot Assists
- Rush Offence: Rush Shot attempts + Rush Shot Assists
- Forecheck Involvement: Loose puck recoveries in the offensive zone + forecheck pressures on opponents trying to exit the zone. A player who ranks highly in this metric is involved digging out pucks and harassing opposing defenders.
- Hits: Body checks, limited to away games to account for scorekeeper bias. For all its subjectivity, a very repeatable stat year-over-year.
AllThreeZones Tracked Data - Defencemen
All microstats on the card are at 5v5 and per 60 minutes
- Goals: 5v5 goals per 60
- Chances: Shot attempts judged to be legitimate scoring chances. In the dataset, players score on 15.6% of chances (as opposed to 1.4% on non-chances)
- Shots: All shot attempts. A player who grades out higher in shots than chances might take a lot of shots from the perimeter, while a player with a higher rate of chances is likely more selective with their shooting.
- Primary Assists: 5v5 first assists per 60
- Chance Assists: Passes leading directly to a scoring chance. A player who ranks well in this metric is setting his linemates up and getting the goalie moving ahead of shots.
- Primary Shot Assists: Passes leading directly to a shot attempt. A player who grades out higher in shot assists than chance assists is likely funneling pucks to the point, which while often advantageous for maintaining offensive-zone possession has a much lower ceiling (shots off low-to-high passes have only a ~2.5% chance of going in)
- NZ Shot Assists: Passes leading directly to a shot attempt from the neutral zone, a sign that a defender is giving his linemates chances in transition
- DZ Shot Assists: Passes leading directly to a shot attempt from the defensive zone, essentially stretch passes leading to a shot
- Entries: Entries into the offensive zone, either by carrying or dumping the puck in
- Exits: Exits out of the defensive zone, either by carrying, passing, or clearing the puck out.
- Exit Possession Rate: The rate of zone exits done in a way that maintains possession of the puck, i.e. either by carrying the puck across the blueline or passing it cleanly to a teammate. A player who grades out low in this metric is likely dumping pucks out of the zone frequently. While this stat is a percentage, the number shown on the card is still a percentile ranking.
- Exit Success Rate: The rate of zone exits that successfully get the puck out of the zone. A player who grades out low in this metric is likely turning the puck over frequently in transition.
- Passes: The number of passes a player makes in all three zones. A player who grades out well in this metric is probably a high-end puck mover.
- Entry Denial Rate: The first of three rush defence metrics, entry denial rate shows the frequency with which attempts by opponents to gain the offensive zone are stopped at the blueline. A player who grades out well in this metric is using his stick or body to protect the blueline.
- Poss. Entry Prevention: A rush defence metric based on how often a defender is preventing possession entries in transition. If he forces his opponent to either give up the puck or dump it in, he grades out well. If he's playing a soft gap and allowing opponents to gain the zone with the puck, he grades out poorly.
- Entry Chance Prevention: The most important rush defence metric, this is based on the rate that a defender prevents his opponent from turning entry attempts into scoring chances. A defender who ranks well in entry denials and possession prevention but poorly in chance prevention might play a tight gap at the line but tend to get walked, while a defender who does not deny entries or force dump-ins but does prevent chances might play a soft gap purely focused on protecting the slot.
- Chance Contributions: Chances + Chance Assists
- Shot Contributions: Shot attempts + Primary Shot Assists
- In-Zone Offence: In-Zone Shot attempts + In-Zone Shot Assists
- Rush Offence: Rush Shot attempts + Rush Shot Assists
- D-Zone Retrievals: Loose puck recoveries in the defensive zone. A player who grades out highly in this metric is an active puck retriever in their own end with a heavy workload when it comes to turning defensive sequences into transition players.
- Retrieval Success: The rate at which a defender is successful at recovering loose pucks in the defensive zone and avoiding turnovers while doing so.
- Success per Poss. Play: The rate at which a defender successfully makes plays with the puck on entries, exits, and recoveries. A more sophisticated stat than giveaways to assess puck management which accounts for how active a player is with the puck. A player who grades out poorly by this metric is turning the puck over at a high rate relative to his workload.
- Hits: Body checks, limited to away games to account for scorekeeper bias. For all its subjectivity, a very repeatable stat year-over-year.