PLAYER CARDS

The signature hockey visualization we offer are the JFresh Player Cards. These have been a recognizable part of online hockey discourse for over four seasons.

The first thing to recognize is that they are ultimately estimates of player performance. While it may be easy and tempting to declare that the player with the higher number in that big box is objectively superior, what these cards are really designed to do is present a player's current standard of performance, to the extent possible, in some of the most important categories of play.

You might notice that the number says Projected WAR. All of the Wins Above Replacement, goals, and assists metrics use weighted averages of the three most recent seasons, with weights chosen based on testing of past results to maximize predictiveness of future results. Player results in any one season are unpredictable, whether you're looking at goals, points, finishing, or more advanced metrics, so as tempting as it can be to focus solely on just one year, you're better served by considering a player's larger track record.

You also might notice that the card shows percentages and not just stats. That's because we use percentile rankings to display the data. If a forward is 98% in EV Offence, for example, that means they rank higher than 98% of their peers in that stat - they're in the top 2%. There are downsides to using percentiles that should be understood, namely that these metrics follow a normal distribution with outliers on either end. That means that the difference between 100th percentile and 95th percentile is much larger than the difference between 55th and 50th. It's also worth mentioning, since this is often mistaken, that in every category players are being compared to all players at their position (forward or defenceman) with over 200 minutes of 5v5 ice time in the most recent season -- not just those with the same time-on-ice role.

Context Data

Some of the numbers on the card are there purely to provide context. They do not affect the WAR numbers.

  • Position: The position the player plays according to NHL_Rosters (formerly of CapFriendly, now of PuckPedia, the only accurate source of detailed player positions).
  • Age: Age as of the beginning of the season.
  • Time-On-Ice: Time on ice per game translated into a role based on ice time around the league.
  • Cap: The cap hit and years remaining on their contract, per PuckPedia.
  • Competition: The percentile ranking of Quality of Competition a player faces on average, based on time-on-ice. A higher ranking means he is deployed on average against higher lines, and the inverse. This is already accounted for by WAR, so it should just be taken as insight into how a player is deployed by his coaches and matched against by opposing coaches.
  • Teammates: The percentile ranking of Quality of Teammates a player plays with on average, based on time-on-ice. A higher ranking means he frequently plays with his team's top TOI players, while a lower one means he's probably in a depth or fourth line role. Similarly is already accounted for by WAR.

WAR Data

  • EV Offence: Projected Even Strength Offence WAR, meaning the wins a player provides to his team through his isolated impact on scoring chances (expected goals) for when he's on the ice at even strength.
  • EV Defence: Projected Even Strength Defence WAR, meaning the wins a player provides to his team through his isolated impact on scoring chances (expected goals) against when he's on the ice at even strength.
  • PP: Same as EV Offence but on the powerplay. If the player plays fewer than one minute per game on the powerplay it is listed as NA.
  • PK: Same as EV Defence but on the penalty kill. If the player plays fewer than one minute per game on the penalty kill it is listed as NA.
  • Finishing: The projected WAR a player provides by finishing his scoring chances, measured by goals scored above expected. This is a very important stat for forwards because it's the most direct ways they create goals and therefore wins for their team compared to a replacement-level player.
  • Penalties: The projected wins a player provides through his penalty differential on non-offsetting penalties. If you draw more penalties than you take, you're helping your team and rank more highly.
  • Proj. WAR %: For forwards, the sum of all of the above numbers, expressed as a percentile. For defencemen, the sum of all the above numbers except for finishing.

Extra Data

  • Goals: A player's percentile ranking in projected goals per 60 minutes at 5v5, based on a weighted average of the past three seasons.
  • 1st Assists: The same, but with 5v5 primary assists per 60.

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