Is there a more standard bit of offseason hockey content than the re-draft? Not only does it offer the chance to take a nostalgic look back, but it provokes exactly the kind of fan bickering required to keep the engine running through the slow August weeks.
I’ve done fan re-draft votes before (with mixed results) but this summer I’ve decided to take a different approach. We’re going to go through the first round of a past NHL Draft, starting with 2011 today and working our way to 2015. We’ll go pick-by-pick: stars, fourth-liners, busts, and all. Using resources like TSN, The Hockey News, The Hockey Writers, and other surviving scouting resources from the early 2010s, I’ll boil down the general consensus projection and then take a look at what actually happened. My hope is that by reflecting on these players — what went right, what went wrong — we’ll not just get a bit nostalgic but also learn something about drafting and scouting.
1st Overall Pick: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM)
Projection: High-I.Q. playmaking centre with elite vision, competitive, and passing skill. Compared to Pavel Datsyuk by TSN and Matt Duchene by THN
Outcome: Nugent-Hopkins was meant to be the elite centre that would, alongside Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and later Nail Yakupov, lead the Oilers back to respectability. Things didn’t end up being quite so simple; after impressing with a ~70-point pace as an undersized 18-year old rookie, Nuge didn’t produce much despite top-line minutes on the terminally-crummy Oilers. He found a new lease on life as a utility forward and powerplay specialist once Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl took the reins, where his high hockey I.Q. and adaptability served him well. Nuge is beloved in Edmonton and might break 1000 points in his career, but his complementary presence and limited 5-on-5 scoring (ranking 95th out of 133 forwards with 750 games played since 2011 in 5-on-5 points per 60) makes his career below-projection nonetheless.
2nd Overall Pick: Gabriel Landeskog (COL)
Projection: Two-way scoring winger with elite leadership skills, high-end physicality and strength, and the adaptability to succeed in any role. Physically ready for the NHL, questions around upside. Compared to Brenden Morrow and Mike Richards by TSN.
Outcome: Another player who became a cornerstone of their organization without producing like a superstar, Landeskog fulfilled his projection almost to a tee. Brian Burke has spoken about how impressed he was with Landeskog’s combine interview and leadership ability, and sure enough he was named captain of the Avalanche only a year after this draft. He never received individual accolades and has scored above a 70-point pace only three times (2018-19, 2020-21, and 2021-22), but he turned out to be a perfect fit once Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen arrived to provide offensive firepower to the Avs forward group, and captained the team to a Stanley Cup in 2022.
3rd Overall Pick: Jonathan Huberdeau (FLA)
Projection: High-end playmaking winger with great vision and passing skill and elite hands. Praised for his skating ability. Compared to Henrik Zetterberg by TSN
Outcome: The first player on the list to truly become a star, Huberdeau won the Calder trophy (admittedly in a weak field) in the lockout-shortened season and steadily built his way up, establishing himself as a top-line 45-assist 70-point playmaker in his early twenties before making a leap in 2018-19 that saw him hit a 90+ point pace four seasons in a row. In 2021-22, he set the record for most assists by a left wing with 85, scoring at a 118 point pace. Unfortunately, a trade to the Calgary Flames in 2022 saw him regress considerably, falling off and plateauing as a second line playmaker. That disappointment has made it tough to remember just how effective and highly regarded he was during his time with the Panthers.
4th Overall Pick: Adam Larsson (NJ)
Projection: Two-way big-minute defenceman who plays a composed, high-I.Q. game with strong vision and puck-moving. Skilled one-on-one defender. Question marks around upside. Compared to Sami Salo by TSN
Outcome: Known more as part of the infamous “one-for-one” Taylor Hall trade now, Larsson’s career has gone mostly as predicted based on the pre-draft projections, perhaps on the low end of what was expected of him. He’s scored at above a 30 point pace only twice and has only one powerplay point in the past fourteen seasons; nonetheless, he’s shouldered at least a top four burden for almost his entire career, with some stretches on a top pairing; he’s also worn a letter on his jersey since 2018-19. His conservative, risk-averse style doesn’t quite square with the high-end puck-moving and aggressive shut-down play in the scouting reports, but 1,000-game top four defensive defenders don’t grow on trees — plus, the Devils certainly got plenty of value out of this pick.
5th Overall Pick: Ryan Strome (NYI)
Projection: A competitive and creative playmaking centre with excellent hands, quick skating, and highlight-reel skill. Not a physical presence. Compared to Jason Spezza by THW and Martin St. Louis by TSN
Outcome: Strome has carved out a very respectable career for himself, but it’s safe to say that he did not reach the heights envisioned by scouts in 2011. Aside from a very successful three-season stretch in Manhattan in which he played almost all his time with Artemi Panarin and scored at a 67 point pace, he was a middle-six pure playmaker producing at a roughly 40-point level. The highlight reel plays, scoring, and skating did not translate to the NHL, although his playmaking did to a certain extent. As for competitiveness, while his defensive game has rarely been good, it does translate in terms of frequent stick infractions. The Islanders traded him for Jordan Eberle in 2018, a very smart move.
6th Overall Pick: Mika Zibanejad (OTT)
Projection: A versatile and strong two-way top six scoring centre. A quick-strike offensive player who brings physicality. Compared to Bobby Holik by TSN.
Outcome: A late bloomer, Zibanejad built his way up the Senators lineup to start his career and established himself as a solid second-line scorer before taking a big step in 2018-19 (for the Rangers) and never turning back. A skilled passer, deadly scorer from distance, special teams weapon, and effective stick-checker, he’s scored at a 33-goal, 76-point pace over the past nine seasons with both a 40-goal and 90-point season on his resumé.
7th Overall Pick: Mark Scheifele (WPG)
Projection: A big top six playmaking power forward with great hands, a high hockey I.Q., and a positive two-way impact. Compared to Paul Stastny by THW, Patrick Sharp by TSN.
Outcome: A bit of a reach at the time, but an unambiguous home run pick and the Jets’ core skater since 2015. Scouts were dead on about his high hockey I.Q. and exceptional passing ability, as seven seasons pacing above 50 assists will demonstrate, and even though he never did use his size and the extra 30 pounds gained post-draft to play a power game, it does help him protect the puck and drive offence. Scheifele’s rise to stardom owes plenty to his development as a scorer; he struggled to light the lamp in junior and in his first years in the NHLer, but since 2015-16 he’s scored at above a 30 goal pace in ten out of eleven seasons and above a point-per-game in nine. If only his defensive game resembled his hero Pavel Datsyuk’s a bit more.
8th Overall Pick: Sean Couturier (PHI)
Projection: A big 60-70 point second line two-way centre who’s strong on the puck and plays a solid, hard-working, smart all-around game. Skating is a question mark, although his speed is an asset. Compared to Jordan Staal by TSN and THW.
Outcome: This was a successful pick that, barring injuries, could have been even better. Scouts were right to doubt his offensive upside, although he did ultimately string four productive 70+ point pace seasons together centering Claude Giroux between 2017-18 and 2020-21. However, at his peak there were few centres in the league who could rival his two-way impact at 5-on-5 and he won the Selke Trophy in 2019-20. Even when he’s been a 40-50 point scorer, he’s played a big match-up top six role for the Flyers, and has been their team captain since 2023-24.
9th Overall Pick: Dougie Hamilton (BOS)
Projection: A big, physical, mobile two-way defenceman with offensive skill, shut-down ability, hockey I.Q., and high character. Compared to Brent Burns by TSN and Jay Bouwmeester by THW.
Outcome: Scouts might have projected their own wishes onto Hamilton who, as it turned out, was not especially physical, mobile, or defensively adept at the NHL level. They did at least make a solid player comparable in Brent Burns, as Hamilton developed into a great top-pairing and even occasional number one defenceman with a similarly chaotic, shot-heavy offensive zone presence. Since draft day, Hamilton ranks third, just below Burns, in 5-on-5 scoring rate and sixth in points among D, a nice complement to his analytical darling status which peaked in the years surrounding the pandemic. GMs and coaches didn’t always quite know what to make of Dougie, and he had been traded twice by his 26th birthday; nonetheless, even if he never developed into quite what scouts hoped, a career as a productive top-pair offensive defenceman with three top-10 Norris finishes doesn’t hurt.
10th Overall Pick: Jonas Brodin (MIN)
Projection: A big-minute, mobile, smart two-way defenceman. A safe player who handles the puck with composure. Compared to Alex Edler by TSN and Jay Bouwmeester by THW.
Outcome: The scouts might have over-sold the offensive upside, but Brodin turned out to be one of the top defensive defencemen - if not the best - of his generation, playing top-pairing minutes throughout almost his entire career (starting when he was 19) and living up to his projection as a calm, poised shutdown player with high-end backwards mobility.
11th Overall Pick: Duncan Siemens (COL)
Projection: A dependable top-four shutdown defenceman with a balanced if unexceptional skill-set, good skating, and plenty of physicality and toughness. Compared to Bryan Allen by TSN and Brent Seabrook by THW.
Outcome: Siemens got some NHL games in (and some fights), but only on the fringe of Colorado’s lineup. His lack of offence at the junior level was a bad omen for his ability to hang, and the upside some scouts identified in that part of his game never materialized; he just couldn’t handle the puck well enough to be playable even in a shut-down role. After six seasons spent mainly in the AHL, he retired from pro hockey in 2019.
12th Overall Pick: Ryan Murphy (CAR)
Projection: A game-breaking offensive defenceman with elite vision, creativity, and elusiveness to compensate for lack of size and defensive proficiency. Compared to Sergei Zubov by TSN and Brian Rafalski by THW.
Outcome: Murphy was considered the best offensive defenceman in the draft, with elite tools that would at least translate as a PP1 player if his defensive game didn’t improve. That didn’t pan out. He got 175 games but couldn’t even make an impact on the powerplay and hung around on the bottom pairing for the Hurricanes and eventually the Wild. As it turned out, his tools were high-end at the junior level, but the vision and hockey sense that scouts talked up was wildly overstated, his speed fell off when he added muscle, and his elusiveness concealed a fear of physical contact that made him extremely turnover prone. Murphy played his last NHL game in 2019 after splitting time between the pros and the minors, and currently plays for EHC München of the DEL.
13th Overall Pick: Sven Baertschi (CGY)
Projection: A fast top six offensive winger with a good shot, great vision, puck-handling ability, and a nose for the net. Concerns around size, board play, defence, and upside. Compared to Mike Cammalleri by THW.
Outcome: Concussions unfortunately limited what seemed poised to be a pretty successful NHL career for Baertschi, who retired in 2023. As the only skilled high-end prospect in Calgary’s system at the start of their rebuild (or so they thought, anyway), there was a lot of pressure placed on him and his development process was not always smooth. Even though he did bulk up, he had trouble gaining the confidence of coaches and GMs and spent most of his career in the bottom six. He produced well relative to his minutes, but only saw spot duty with the exception of three mostly-full seasons in Vancouver between 2016 and 2019. Ultimately the pre-draft reports look pretty spot on, but who knows if proper development and health would have made him a permanent top six forward.
14th Overall Pick: Jamie Oleksiak (DAL)
Projection: A big, nasty, mobile shut-down defenceman with solid skill and mobility. Compared to Tyler Myers by THN and THW.
Outcome: Oleksiak took a while to find his footing in the NHL, and looked for a while like he would top out as a sheltered third-pairing player (notoriously traded for the same third-round pick twice, first to Pittsburgh and then back to the Stars). All the while, however, his defensive game was steadily improving and by 2020 he was a rock-solid top four player. No, he was never as nasty as some scouts may have hoped (although he can be punishing when he wants to be), but scouts were right to compliment his skating and puck skills which are both above-average, and his reach and mobility are assets in his own end.
15th Overall Pick: J.T. Miller (NYR)
Projection: A hard-working power forward with good speed, size, and skill and a nose for the net. Considered a project with top six upside, but could be a checking line player. Compared to Brandon Dubinsky by THW and Mason Raymond by TSN.
Outcome: It would be tough to complain about Miller’s career if he had stayed on the 20-goal, 50-60 point track he established by 2019, but his offensive explosion in Vancouver - four seasons above a 30-goal pace, two above a 100-point pace, and a 90-point pace over his tenure with the team - would have absolutely stunned evaluators ahead of the 2011 draft. They got the speed, size, and determination correct, but what they didn’t see was the high hockey I.Q. that ultimately made him a deadly dual threat on the powerplay and one of the better one-touch playmakers in the league.
16th Overall Pick: Joel Armia (BUF)
Projection: A top six pure sniper with size, hands, puck protection, and power-forward elements. Displays passing upside and defensive awareness. Compared to Mikael Samuelsson by TSN and Jeff Carter by THW,
Outcome: All credit to Armia for sticking around even though the goal-scoring didn’t translate at all. Despite only two seasons scoring above a 20-goal pace and only hitting the 30-point threshold once, Armia has played more than 600 games, primarily as a bottom-six utility winger and penalty killer. He not only represented Finland in the Olympics this year, but led them in scoring with 8 points in 6 games.
17th Overall Pick: Nathan Beaulieu (MTL)
Projection: A top-pairing two-way defenceman with elite mobility, strong puck-moving skill, and good work ethic. Reliable defensively and plays with an edge, although he needs to simplify. Compared to Jack Johnson by TSN and Keith Yandle by THW,
Outcome: You can’t really complain about picking up a 470-game player at 17, but Beaulieu did leave a lot to be desired given his skillset. He managed to carve out an 11-year career as a bottom-pairing player, peaking with 28 points in 2016-17 alongside Jeff Petry and Shea Weber in Montréal. His mobility kept him the league, but he never developed as expected and he struggled defensively even against limited depth competition.
18th Overall Pick: Mark McNeill (CHI)
Projection: A physically-strong and versatile power forward with two-way talent, intensity, and toughness. Middle-six centre, a bit of a project due to lack of skating and limited creativity. Compared to Manny Malhotra by TSN and Martin Hanzal by THW,
Outcome: McNeill was considered physically ready to play in the NHL, but limited by speed and offensive ability; nonetheless, scouts were confident he would stick as an NHLer and contribute to a Cup contender. On paper, the burgeoning quasi-dynasty in Chicago seemed like the perfect destination for him, but he never managed to get the eye of Joel Quenneville despite strong AHL results and only played two NHL games. He moved to Europe in 2019 and finished his career in DEL-2 in 2025.
19th Overall Pick: Oscar Klefbom (EDM)
Projection: A hard-working two-way defenceman with good character, size, strength, vision, and passing. Top four or even top pairing player, potentially limited by skating and hockey sense. Compared to Brent Seabrook by THW and Jonathan Ericsson by THN,
Outcome: Klefbom was well on his way to surpassing his projected upside as a number one defenceman when chronic arthritis in his shoulder forced him to retire. Every aspect of his career, from production to role to results, was trending upward when he played his last NHL games in 2020, and he was poised to be at least a two-way rock on the Oilers’ top pairing for a long time. They got six seasons out of him, but this is a sad story.
20th Overall Pick: Connor Murphy (PHX)
Projection: A skilled two-way defenceman with puck-moving and handling ability and some physicality without the puck. Mobile but not fast, maybe a top-four puck mover and powerplay contributor if he can catch up on development missed to injury. Compared to Alex Goligoski by TSN and Dan Boyle by THW.
Outcome: It’s a bit funny reading Murphy’s reports because they do not square with the stay-at-home player he’s been for over 800 NHL games, most of which has been spent as a top-four contributor. Murphy has never hit 20 points, but despite playing for some really bad teams he’s quietly been one of the most reliable shutdown defencemen of the past decade, playing a smart and aggressive defensive game despite a lack of skating speed and rarely handling the puck. Only four career powerplay points tells a story of the divergence between prospect and player.
21st Overall Pick: Stefan Noesen (OTT)
Projection: A hard-nosed physical forward who plays well in tight and has soft hands, not a great skater but has a high motor. Likely a third line middle-six checker who can score and kill penalties. Compared to Colin Wilson by ISS and Maxim Lapierre by TSN.
Outcome: Noesen was acknowledged as a project pick, and that certainly turned out to be the case. The report looks almost spot on: hard-working but a poor skater, strong in tight and willing to battle, and sneaky good hands despite rarely handling the puck. He looked doomed to be a true journeyman, having played with seven organizations by 2021 and never venturing above the bottom of the lineup, but carving out an improbable powerplay role with the Hurricanes and Devils made him a surprise 20-goal scorer in 2024-25. He regressed in 2025-26, and it remains to be seen whether he can keep his career alive past the end of his contract.
22nd Overall Pick: Tyler Biggs (TOR)
Projection: A nasty, hard-working scoring power forward who punishes defencemen on the forecheck, loves to battle along the boards and at the net-front, and is willing and eager to drop the gloves. Questionable upside but likely to be a third line difference-maker. Compared to Milan Lucic by THW and Colby Armstrong and Kyle Clifford by TSN.
Outcome: The Leafs traded up for this pick, and were burned for it. Players that fit the projection above are catnip for general managers and coaches, but Biggs wasn’t that. He could physically dominate at lower levels, but his skill and skating were just not close to good enough for the NHL; hell, they weren’t good enough for the AHL, where he scored at a 0.14 points per game pace in 119 games. 22nd overall picks don’t always pan out, but Biggs serves as a cautionary tale that taking a lack of skill to mean a “safe bottom six” projection often leaves you with a guy who just can’t keep up. He was a throw-in in the Phil Kessel trade and never played an NHL game.
23rd Overall Pick: Joe Morrow (PIT)
Projection: A two-way top four defenceman with high-end skating, puck-moving ability and a big shot. Gritty but question marks defensively. Compared to Dan Hamhuis by THW.
Outcome: Known more for his inclusion in trades (for Brenden Morrow in 2013 and as part of the Tyler Seguin package in 2014) than his NHL career, Morrow never progressed past depth defenceman status, playing a career-high 41 games in 2018-19 before beginning a journeyman European career. It seems as though the powerhouse Winterhawks were making him look better than he was, and the poor defensive awareness scared NHL coaches away from playing him against all but the weakest competition.
24th Overall Pick: Matt Puempel (OTT)
Projection: A pure goal scorer with defensive issues and a wide range of potential outcomes, especially due to injury history and inconsistency. Compared to Patrick Sharp by THW.
Outcome: Puempel managed 87 NHL games across three teams and only 11 goals, which tells an obvious story about how the goal-scoring translated. He ended up on waivers five years after the draft and never played more than a fringe depth role. He was considered a boom-or-bust project player with top line goal scoring upside, but he dealt with more injuries and stagnated through junior. He became a solid scorer at the AHL level, but that was all.
25th Overall Pick: Stuart Percy (TOR)
Projection: An all-around two-way puck-moving defenceman with a stabilizing influence. Smart and solid in all elements of the game, but not exceptional in any sense. Likely a #4 or #5. Compared to Paul Martin by TSN, Dan Hamhuis and Dan Girardi by THW.
Outcome: Brian Burke’s second swing-and-a-miss of the first round, Percy mustered only 11 NHL games in the Leafs’ two tanking years. He showed some encouraging flashes as he developed in their system, playing a high-I.Q. puck-moving game, but dealt with concussions and got lost in the shuffle of the Leafs’ glut of young depth defencemen. There are still some fans who believe that Percy could have been a #4 defenceman if he had been given better opportunities and avoided injury.
26th Overall Pick: Phillip Danault (CHI)
Projection: A hard-working third-line two-way winger who plays an unselfish style and uses his teammates well; limited in terms of skill and scoring, but will kill penalties. High character and consistency.
Outcome: Danault turned out to be a real project, not sticking in the NHL until 2015-16 and not establishing himself as a player until 2016-17. After being acquired from the Blackhawks, he worked his way up the Habs’ lineup by playing exactly how the scouts drew it up, unselfishly and prioritizing steady two-way play, and it worked in his favour that he turned out to be a centre. By 2018-19 he was the Habs’ match-up centre, producing at roughly a 55-point pace and taking on tough competition while finding himself in the top-ten in Selke voting each year. He seems to be on the down-swing and has been relegated to a pure low-event defensive role, but undeniably a successful pick.
27th Overall Pick: Vladislav Namestnikov (TB)
Projection: An offensive playmaking centre with crafty puck skills and smooth skating, could be a top six player if he bulks up and continues to play with a high motor. Compared to Igor Larionov by THW.
Outcome: Maybe the ultimate utility player of the past decade, Namestnikov has played for seven teams, generally in a middle six role moving up and down the lineup, and pitching in 25 to 40 points. The visions of him as an offensive needle-mover and high-end playmaker did not pan out - out of 134 forwards with 750+ games played since the draft he ranks 110th in 5-on-5 assist rate and 121st in 5-on-5 points rate. But he’s been a useful player, generally speaking, primarily providing positive defensive impact at even strength. He could hit 1,000 games in a few years.
28th Overall Pick: Zach Phillips (MIN)
Projection: A gifted playmaker with high-end vision, soft hands, and a good shot, could be a top six centre if skating improves. Compared to Adam Oates by TSN and Patrick Sharp by THW.
Outcome: One of only two 2011 first round picks to never play in the NHL, and he similarly didn’t even come close; producing even in the AHL was a struggle. He never improved his skating and some reported that he lacked the work ethic to get it where it needed to be, but to his credit he stuck it out and had a true journeyman’s career, playing in the AHL, ECHL, AllSvenskan, EIHL, EBEL, Slovakian league, Polish league, Germany3, Australia, and this year in Maritime senior hockey.
29th Overall Pick: Nicklas Jensen (VAN)
Projection: A finesse sniper with puck skill and plenty of speed, boom-or-bust player that could be a top six scoring winger or be too soft to stick in the NHL. Compared to Jussi Jokinen by TSN.
Outcome: Jensen had a lot of pressure on him as one of the Canucks’ few prospects in the early 2010s, and on paper a speedy 6’3 sniper would seem to be exactly what they needed. Unfortunately, he did not have the hockey I.Q. to contribute offensively and despite bulking up there were a lot of qualms that he lacked the motor and grit to pitch in lower in the lineup; he had a few stretches in the NHL but spent most of his time in North America as a mediocre AHLer before leaving for Europe in 2017.
30th Overall Pick: Rickard Rakell (ANA)
Projection: A speedy middle-six two-way scoring winger with a great shot, a high motor without the puck, and good hockey sense. Limited creativity and puck skills, likely a complementary energy winger. Compared to Tuomo Ruutu by THW.
Outcome: Rakell was a late riser and it took some time for him to get his feet under him in the NHL, not establishing himself as a difference-maker until his DY+5. Eight seasons pacing above 20 goals, four above 35, and some 70-point campaigns mixed into a career as a top six staple is an excellent outcome for a 30th overall pick. The Ducks were a perfect fit as he was able to establish himself on a line with Ryan Getzlaf, one of the era’s great playmakers. Times got a bit tough for a stretch after he retired, but now he’s back at it with a plum gig next to Sidney Crosby. The scouting report rings true: Rakell has never been a driver, but his shot is a great weapon when he’s next to someone who can get the goalie moving with a pass, and he can get to dangerous areas and pitch in in other ways if needed.