Leading up to the 2026-27 season, we’re going to look at the first round of a past NHL Draft every week. Last week we did 2011, today we look at the infamous 2012 draft, and we’ll work our way to 2015.
We’ll go pick-by-pick: stars, fourth-liners, busts, and all. Using resources like TSN, The Hockey News, The Hockey Writers, and other surviving scouting resources from the early 2010s, I’ll boil down the general consensus projection and then see how that compared to what actually happened. My hope is that by reflecting on these players and the scouts’ predictions we’ll not just get a bit of nostalgia but also learn something about drafting, scouting, and realistically projecting future outcomes.
1st Overall Pick: Nail Yakupov (EDM)
Projection: Star scoring winger with game-breaking speed and puck skills, a dual threat sniper and playmaker. Competitive and high-I.Q. with feistiness and a bit of physical edge. Compared to Alexander Mogilny by TSN.
Outcome: It’s safe to say Yakupov was not the sure-fire star the scouts thought he was. After an exciting rookie reason in which he scored at a roughly 30-goal, 53-point pace (driven by 21% shooting), he instantly regressed, struggled to put the puck in the net, and failed to improve other elements of his game. His passes were automatic giveaways, he puck-handled right into traffic, and he couldn’t get himself open for one-timers. By 2018 he was in the KHL, and his eight years in that league haven’t even been anything special. As the biggest bust of the cap era, the question of what the hell happened here has been dissected for over a decade, and at this point the general consensus is that the hockey sense scouts thought they saw in junior did not remotely exist, that he lacked the ability to process the play in front of him on or off the puck, that he was energetic and hard-working but focused on the wrong things, and that the Oilers’ clown car coaching carousel destroyed any chance to develop him out of these habits. Brian Burke notoriously stated that Yakupov’s pre-draft interview was the worst he had ever seen.
2nd Overall Pick: Ryan Murray (CBJ)
Projection: A safe, two-way defenceman who will play a lot of minutes for a long time. Poised, calming, mobile, and high-I.Q., a winning player. Not much offence or physicality, but a great stick. Compared to Dan Hamhuis by TSN.
Outcome: Murray was expected to step into the NHL right away and spend 15 years as a top pairing player, but unfortunately it wasn’t quite that simple. His career was heavily affected by injuries: in his draft year he sprained his ankle, in his draft plus one year he had shoulder surgery, in 2014-15 he injured his knee and sprained his ankle, and in every season after 2016 he had some kind of ailment keep him out for at least 20 games. He seemed to be hitting his stride in his mid-twenties, playing steady two-way hockey on the Jackets’ second pairing, but the injuries just wouldn’t stop and the team finally gave up in 2020, sending him to New Jersey. After his stint with the Devils he bounced around a bit, getting a Cup ring with the Avs in 2022 and retiring at 29 after a short stay with the Oilers. Many Blue Jackets fans maintain that he would have lived up to his projected upside without injuries; at least it seems like he would have been a terrific #3D.
3rd Overall Pick: Alex Galchenyuk (MTL)
Projection: A first line offensive centre who makes the players around him better with outstanding vision, puck skills, and size. Not a great skater. Compared to Anze Kopitar by TSN and Marian Hossa & Bobby Ryan by THN.
Outcome: There was risk associated with Galchenyuk because he barely played in his draft year, but hopes were high that he would be the big number one two-way centre that the Habs desperately needed in the David Desharnais era. It became clear pretty quickly that that’s not what he was going to be, but for a moment there he did look poised to really contribute. After producing well in a very small role as a teenager, he rewarded the team for elevating his role in the line-up with improved production, albeit at the expense of his defensive contribution which completely collapsed. After a 30-goal season in 2015-16 and two more after that above a 50-point pace, he was traded to Arizona and began a decline that would see him join six teams in three seasons and fall out of the league by 2023. At the time, many Habs fans were adamant that the organization was ruining his development by not allowing him to play centre full-time and forcing him to play a game that wasn’t natural to him, but looking at his brutal defensive impacts (which only worsened when he left town) it’s not hard to imagine why they were so reticent. A knee injury in 2016-17 also really didn’t help given the skating flaws that were already there on draft day. 354 points in 654 NHL games isn’t bust territory, but no doubt this was a disappointing outcome.
4th Overall Pick: Griffin Reinhart (NYI)
Projection: A big, minute-munching two-way defenceman who plays a stable, composed game. High I.Q., not a stand-out physical or offensive player. Compared to Ryan Suter by TSN.
Outcome: It’s easy for GMs to get excited about the idea of a low-maintenance 6’4 two-way defenceman, to the extent that two of them made a big mistake betting on Reinhart. He developed his physical edge in junior but it didn’t translate against men and his skating was a much more consequential weakness than scouts expected, especially after a foot injury in 2013. Even his processing, which was supposed to be his separating ability, didn’t hold up against pro forecheckers. He played eight games with the Islanders, who tellingly cut bait as soon as they got a close look at him in their system and turned him into Mathew Barzal at the 2015 Draft. He got 29 games as an Oiler, spent some time in the AHL, and then left for Europe before retiring in 2022.
5th Overall Pick: Morgan Rielly (TOR)
Projection: A dynamic #1 offensive defenceman with elite passing and skating. Weak defensively and not imposing physically. A top unit powerplay contributor. Compared to Kris Letang by TSN.
Outcome: Brian Burke notoriously thought Rielly was the best player in the draft, and while that didn’t turn out to be true he has comfortably out-performed everyone picked above him. Though he never became one of the league’s top defencemen, his offensive acumen has been impressive and at his peak he was one of the top 5-on-5 offensive drivers in the league. He’s paced above 50 points six times, hitting 72 in 2018-19, and the Leafs have gotten more than 21 minutes a night out of him in eleven of his twelve NHL seasons including some in which he was deployed as a true number one. The scouting report looks basically spot-on, since Rielly’s mobility and especially passing turned out to be major strengths and his defensive play was and is a catastrophic weakness; he ranks last among all defencemen in even strength defensive WAR since 2012.
6th Overall Pick: Hampus Lindholm (ANA)
Projection: A top-pairing all-around two-way defenceman with offensive ability, versatility, and excellent mobility. Not physical but has the size, tools, and athleticism to play heavy and difficult minutes. Compared to Alex Pietrangelo by TSN.
Outcome: Lindholm was a late riser, and he lost no momentum after the draft, putting in one AHL season as an 18 year old before storming onto the Ducks’ roster and playing superb second-pair hockey for them as a teenager in 2013-14. While he was overshadowed by Cam Fowler, he was probably their most important defenceman during their final Getzlaf/Perry contention window, and many in the analytics community argued that he was an elite two-way defender during his early-to-mid twenties. Since his 2022 trade to Boston he’s continued to play a stabilizing matchup-minute role, and even got some Norris attention during his outlier 53-point season in 2022-23.
7th Overall Pick: Matt Dumba (MIN)
Projection: A mobile two-way defenceman with an aggressive physical style and plenty of skill with the puck. Competitive with excellent leadership, but might need to settle his game down. Compared to Dion Phaneuf and P.K. Subban by TSN.
Outcome: It’s not hard to see why Dumba’s tools endeared him so much to scouts, and they were a big reason he worked his way up the Wild’s lineup through his early twenties until 2017-18 and 2018-19 when he scored above a 50-point pace while playing over 23 minutes a night. He was fast, aggressive, and had a superb shot, although its effectiveness fell sharply once he tore his pec in a fight against Matthew Tkachuk in 2018. Since leaving Minnesota in 2023 he’s been something between a reclamation project and physical depth defenceman, and passed through waivers last season. There’s room for disagreement over whether Dumba’s actual on-ice contributions were overrated even his prime, but ~750 games played and eight seasons above 20 minutes a night is a very successful outcome for a seventh overall pick.
8th Overall Pick: Derrick Pouliot (PIT)
Projection: A #2 puck-moving defenceman who can quarterback a powerplay, with great vision, passing, and skating. A high-end transition player, but lacks physicality and assertiveness. Compared to Michael Del Zotto and Kris Letang by TSN.
Outcome: Pittsburgh seemed primed to grab the falling Filip Forsberg when they traded Jordan Staal for a package including this pick, but instead they added to their war-chest of puck-moving defencemen that already included Simon Despres, Scott Harrington, and Joe Morrow. That may have seemed like a decent idea at the time, but Pouliot did not pan out the way they envisioned. His lack of progression and struggle to gain anything but the most sheltered minutes when he did rarely crack the lineup (even though they literally hired his junior coach) led to his being traded to Vancouver at 24. After two inconsistent seasons on the fringes of their lineup, he spent three years on the journeyman circuit and hasn’t played in the NHL since 2023.
9th Overall Pick: Jacob Trouba (WPG)
Projection: A competitive top-pairing defence-first defenceman with great physicality and impressive tools including balance and skating. Moves the puck well but offence revolves around his shot. Leader. Compared to Adam Foote by TSN.
Outcome: Scouts thought that Trouba required quite a bit of development, but he started making a difference right away for the Jets, playing a top-pair role at 19 and contributing in all situations. He probably peaked in his early 20s in 2015-16 and 2016-17, shouldering a #1 workload with very strong results and solid production, and had his most productive season in 2018-19 before forcing a trade to the New York Rangers where he was named captain and played a significant role during their Panarin-era window. His leadership and often reckless physicality are what he has been most known for, but he’s generally been more impactful at driving offence than defence (possibly because of his tendency to chase hits instead of making safer plays). As a Duck in 2025-26 he played his heaviest minute load since his Jets days, and he is clearly still valued based on the contract he signed this summer.
10th Overall Pick: Slater Koekkoek (TB)
Projection: A minute-munching #2/#3 two-way defenceman with determination, endurance, and size who disrupts plays with his skating and competitiveness. Compared to Paul Martin by TSN.
Outcome: By the time Koekkoek was ready for prime time, the Lightning were too focused on winning games to prioritize his development or even get him into the line-up. He wasn’t showing world-beating skill in the games he got into, but only 10 or 11 minutes a night at the fringes of the lineup probably wasn’t helping, and months-long confinement to the press-box in 2017-18 and 2018-19 likely only made things worse. He seemed to be showing growth as a Blackhawks in 2019-20 as a third-pairing contributor, but they never qualified him and he was picked up by the Oilers who returned him to 7D status. Koekkoek has talked publicly about his experiences in the game, including his anxiety-induced eating disorders and the impact of his fringe lineup status on his mental health. 186 NHL games played with only two seasons above 16 minutes a night is disappointing at 10th overall, but you wonder if things could have been different here.
11th Overall Pick: Filip Forsberg (WSH)
Projection: A creative two-way top line winger with slick hands, powerful skating, a lethal shot, and plenty of determination. Not a playmaker, needs to play with a talented centre. Compared to Johan Franzen by TSN.
Outcome: Projected as a top three pick, Forsberg was the victim of the run on defencemen and wound up being shrewdly selected by the Capitals (who then completely squandered their good fortune by trading him for Martin Erat a year later). As soon as he hit the NHL full-time in 2014, it was clear just how much both they and the teams who passed on him had screwed up, as he became one of the league’s most efficient 5-on-5 scorers, a capable two-way presence, and — contrary to projection — fully capable of driving a line by himself. He’s paced below 60 points only once in the past twelve seasons, with peak goal paces of 50 and 48 as well as point paces of 78, 100, and 94 in the mix. In a weak draft, he was clearly the best skater picked.
12th Overall Pick: Mikhail Grigorenko (BUF)
Projection: A big skilled top six offensive two-way centre with high-end handling and passing as well as a decent shot and hockey I.Q. A work in progress defensively with question marks in terms of character and consistency. Compared to Jason Spezza by TSN.
Outcome: Described using the dreaded “E” word for a Russian prospect (enigmatic), Grigorenko yo-yo’d up and down the draft board in the year preceding the draft and ended up on what would soon turn out to be a tire-fire Sabres squad. His development early on was chaotic, as he spent time in the QMJHL, AHL, and NHL in both of his first two years post-draft, and at the time many thought that the Sabres were stubbornly forcing him into the NHL when he obviously wasn’t ready (whether this was because a GM on the hot seat felt that he needed a draft “win” or because Grigorenko was threatening to go bac to Russia, who knows). He was included in the Ryan O’Reilly trade at the 2015 draft, played two decent but unremarkable seasons in Colorado’s bottom six, and left for Russia, briefly re-emerging for a random 32-game stint with the Jackets during the COVID season. It seems likely that he required a delicate development plan to get him to his pre-draft projection, and received the opposite.
13th Overall Pick: Radek Faksa (DAL)
Projection: A big opportunistic second line two-way centre with a well-rounded offensive skillset and a knack for playing in tough areas. Mature and tough to play against, might have limited offensive upside. Compared to Logan Couture, Bobby Holik, and Jordan Staal by TSN.
Outcome: There were question marks about Faksa’s offence, and it’s fair to say they were pretty accurate: since 2012, out of 156 eligible forwards Faksa ranks 145th in even strength offence WAR, 147th in 5-on-5 goal rate, and 146th in 5-on-5 points rate. His career high is 33 points, and he’s not going to hit that again. Nonetheless, he’s played over 750 games in the NHL, consistently carving out a bottom six defensive role and often being difficult to play against, although he’s been more of a pure depth piece since 2022.
14th Overall Pick: Zemgus Girgensons (BUF)
Projection: A third line two-way centre who can win faceoffs and kill penalties but also has a power forward element to his game and plays with determination and strength on the puck. Compared to Ryan Callahan and Dustin Brown by TSN.
Outcome: Much like Faksa, Girgensons showed some flashes of two-way play up the line-up early in his career (notoriously representing the Sabres in the 2014-15 All-Star Game) before buckling down and becoming the low-event bottom-six player we know and love. It’s strange to think that at one point he was playing first line minutes and scoring at a 20+20 pace, but the 2014-15 Sabres were a weird, weird team. Even though he’s got a serious chance at hitting 1,000 career games, which is no joke, I would imagine the Sabres probably had slightly higher hopes for him than the mostly-fourth-line centre they got.
15th Overall Pick: Cody Ceci (OTT)
Projection: A minute-munching offensive defenceman with a big shot who takes risks to make plays but contributes in all situations against tough competition. Compared to Michael Del Zotto by THN and Larry Murphy by TSN.
Outcome: Ceci will surpass 1,000 games in the NHL, playing a significant top-four or top-pairing role in many of them. He has found a way, even as his offensive attributes failed to materialize as his role in the lineup was elevated. Starting in 2016-17 the Senators re-cast him as a big-minute match-up player, a role to which he seems to have been ill-suited and in which he was heavily out-chanced and out-scored in every season including the 2017 playoffs. From 2019-20 to the present he’s added six teams to his resumé, but far from the usual depth journeyman deployment, he has continued to have the trust of his coaches in tricky middle-pair defensive roles, generally with uninspiring results.
16th Overall Pick: Tom Wilson (WSH)
Projection: A big, violent power forward who uses his intimidation factor to clear space and make plays. High-I.Q. with some offensive skill and decent skating. Compared to Milan Lucic by TSN.
Outcome: Not that they ever need an excuse to take a hard-hitting Lucic comparable in the first round, but scouts were adamant that despite his borderline non-existent junior production, Wilson was concealing some legitimate and projectable offensive skill. Until 2016-17 it looked like, as usual, they were wrong, and this was yet another 20-point low-event enforcer fourth liner taken too high. Then he started to push his way up the lineup, earning a spot on Ovechkin’s line, dramatically improving his finishing, and pitching in 55ish points a season without losing his edge. Then, right as he seemed to be on the classic power forward downward age curve entering his thirties, he once again found another level, refining his two-way game, using his intimidation to force turnovers and forecheck, and becoming an important and versatile cog in transition and the offensive zone — in other words, the scouting reports were fully vindicated thirteen years later. Two seasons around a 70 point pace and a spot on the Olympic roster were the rewards, and 1,000 games will soon follow.
17th Overall Pick: Tomas Hertl (SJ)
Projection: A cerebral centre with strength, positioning, puck skills, and versatility. Elite handling.
Outcome: Hertl made a big impression when he joined the NHL at 19 in 2013 with his exuberance, skill, and daring with the puck. His legendary four-goal game in which he sent goalie Martin Biron to the TV studio with a between-the-legs goalie probably set some unrealistic expectations of his play style, especially as he worked in the next few seasons to establish himself in the Sharks’ middle six before solidifying a crucial role with a break-out 35-goal, 74-point season in 2018-19 followed by 10 goals in 19 playoff games. Since then, he’s been a steady 25-30 goal scorer, usually with 60-70 points, who played some thankless minutes for the rebuilding Sharks before becoming a crucial second-line player for Vegas. The combination of size, strength, I.Q., and handles that stood out to scouts continue to make him one of the more dangerous cycle creators in the game, and he’s probably the second-best forward in the draft.
18th Overall Pick: Teuvo Teravainen (CHI)
Projection: A creative top-six dual-threat offensive forward with scoring touch, vision, and calmness. Undersized but elusive, with high offensive upside thanks to his awareness and elite hands, but work to do defensively. Compared to Ales Hemsky by THW.
Outcome: For the third-most-productive member of his draft class, Teravainen has slid a bit under the radar during his successful 800 game NHL career. He showed promise early as a Hawk, helping them win the 2015 Stanley Cup on a line with Antoine Vermette and Patrick Sharp, and for all his dynamic draft pedigree, it was his stabilizing defensive presence that was driving his value. When he was moved in a cap dump to the Hurricanes in 2016, he got the opportunity to really break out. His playmaking took off, he became a consistent 20-goal threat thanks to his sneaky one-timer, and he fit very well in their possession-oriented system, scoring at a 76 point pace in consecutive seasons as a top-six all-situations contributor. With foot-speed never being a calling card, Teravainen has aged gracefully, and since rejoining the Blackhawks the defensive aspects of his game have once again taken priority to help insulate the team’s new generation of young players.
19th Overall Pick: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB)
Projection: A starting goalie with size, battle, composure, and excellent athleticism. Compared to Braden Holtby by TSN and Carey Price and Nikolai Khabibulin by THW.
Outcome: I think it’s safe to say the Lightning are pretty pleased with how this pick turned out. Acquiring Ben Bishop in 2013 gave Tampa Bay the luxury of easing Vasilevskiy into the NHL after he had dominated in Russia in his D+1 and held his own in the AHL in the next two seasons. When he did get to Tampa as a backup in 2014-15 and 2015-16, it was the perfect defensive environment to find his footing, and he got some playoff reps in 2015 (didn’t go so well) and 2016 (almost goalied the eventual champs). He continued to get more comfortable as the starter once Bishop was dealt, and received Vézina nominations in each season from 2017-18 to 2020-21, winning the award in 2019 along with back-to-back Cups in 2020 and 2021 and a Conn Smythe in the latter run. Since then, he’s been one of the league’s most reliable star goaltenders with a second Vézina in 2026, and due to his combination of regular season and postseason success would likely be the consensus pick for the best goalie of his generation.
20th Overall Pick: Scott Laughton (PHI)
Projection: A big physical middle-six shut-down centre who can pitch in offensively, an ultra-competitive all-around contributor. Compared to Mike Richards by TSN.
Outcome: It took a while for Laughton to establish himself as a real contributor, plugging away in sheltered fourth line minutes for the Flyers until 2017-18. By his mid-twenties he had gained their trust and started moving his way up the lineup, playing a straight-forward but hard-nosed game in their middle six between 2019 and 2024, when he was notoriously traded to the Maple Leafs for a first round pick. He never quite panned out as a shut-down player, but he produced at around a 40-point pace a few times and wore an “A” for the Flyers for a couple seasons. His physicality and leadership continue to be praised around the league, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he gets to 1,000 games.
21st Overall Pick: Mark Jankowski (CGY)
Projection: A big skilled centre with excellent skating and playmaking ability. A long-term project, high-risk high-reward. Compared to Jason Spezza by THW.
Outcome: Jankowski is one of the most notorious late-first picks of the cap era due to his unique draft year rise (no one had ever heard of him before he grew six inches in a year while playing Canadian high school hockey) and Flames GM Jay Feaster’s incredible confidence that in ten years he would be considered the best player in the draft. It was taken for granted that he would require a lot of development time, and sure enough he played all four years of college and a full season in the AHL before he got his first NHL game in 2017. Once he got there, he was not exactly a superstar in waiting, but a steady defensive fourth liner with a little scoring touch and aptitude on the penalty kill. He’s a survivor, still hanging around on the Hurricanes fourth line nine seasons later, his fifth franchise, and now he’s a Stanley Cup champion. For a supposed boom-or-bust player, nearing 500 career games as a depth player the entire time is a bit of a surprise.
22nd Overall Pick: Olli Maatta (PIT)
Projection: A puck-moving middle pair two-way defenceman who plays a steady but not eye-catching game. Uses anticipation and stick-work to compensate for poor skating and physicality. Compared to Ryan Suter and Teppo Numminen by THW.
Outcome: Of the five puck-moving defencemen the Penguins drafted high after 2009 to complement their star forwards, only Maatta ended up actually playing a role on their back-to-back championship teams in 2016 and 2017. He needed only one more year of junior hockey before surprisingly making the NHL roster in 2013-14, a year in which he set what would turn out to be a career-high in points with 29 and played with Finland at the Sochi Olympics. He pushed further up their lineup the next two seasons before settling in as a defensive #4/#5 and winning two Stanley Cups. He’s become a real journeyman, moving from the Pens to the Blackhawks to the Kings to the Red Wings to the Mammoth to the Flames and now to the Wild. While he’s sometimes moved down the lineup and been maligned for poor skating, he’s managed to stick around and there always seems to be a team out there that could use the stability he brings on their blueline.
23rd Overall Pick: Mike Matheson (FLA)
Projection: An offensive defenceman whose game is built around his elite skating: speed, agility, and elusiveness. Lacking in physicality.
Outcome: The scouts weren’t wrong about Matheson’s skating, which along with his relentless motor and endurance has gotten him to a very successful NHL career. It took very little time for him to earn the trust of the Panthers, who slotted him on their second pairing right away when he cracked their roster in 2016-17 and was playing big minutes next to Aaron Ekblad by 2018-19. After signing him to a big extension the team soured on him and shipped him to Pittsburgh where he played well in more of a third-pairing role, but his career really took off when he was flipped to a rebuilding Montréal team that was real weak on the blueline where he instantly became one of the league’s biggest minute-munchers. He scored at a 58- and 62-point pace in his first two seasons with the Habs and has played over 24 minutes per night in all four. He hasn’t exactly been an analytical darling throughout his career, but he’s a toolsy player who’s always exerted a visible impact all over the ice.
24th Overall Pick: Malcolm Subban (BOS)
Projection: An athletic starting goalie with a refined technical and mental game. A bit undersized.
Outcome: The Bruins took their time getting Subban into the NHL, as their backups were performing perfectly fine behind their elite team defence. He looked good in the AHL, but it didn’t help that his only two forays into NHL action for the Bruins, one game in 2014-15 and one game in 2016-17, went extremely poorly as he allowed a combined six goals on 22 shots. The new expansion team in Vegas gave him a shot though, selecting him to be their backup behind Marc-André Fleury. He had three seasons as the backup for the Knights plus one with Chicago in the shortened season, and then got five games in with the Sabres and Blue Jackets. 87 career games and just four full seasons weren’t quite what the Sabres or the scouts had in mind, and the visions of a Subban vs. Subban Bruins/Habs rivalry game certainly never panned out.
25th Overall Pick: Jordan Schmaltz (STL)
Projection: A high-upside offensive defenceman who handles the puck with poise and will play on the powerplay. Not a physical player, possibly one-dimensional. Compared to Keith Yandle by THW.
Outcome: The Blues were ready to be patient with Schmaltz, a project right-handed offensive defenceman likely to slot behind Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk. He played three seasons in North Dakota after the draft, improving his production each year, and then did the same on St. Louis’ AHL affiliates in Chicago and San Antonio. Unfortunately, his assertiveness with the puck didn’t translate in his NHL appearances, his defensive game wasn’t trusted in sheltered minutes, and the emergence of Colton Parayko and Vince Dunn (not to mention coaches’ trust of Robert Bortuzzo on pair three) didn’t leave a lot of space for him. He cleared waivers, was on the practice squad when the Blues won the Cup, and was shipped to Toronto where he began to wind down his AHL career. After two seasons in Europe he opted for a career change and became a social media presence and podcaster.
26th Overall Pick: Brendan Gaunce (VAN)
Projection: A physically dominant middle-six centre who protects the puck well. A scorer with determination and two-way commitment but underwhelming skating and handling. Compared to Jordan Staal by TSN
Outcome: Brendan Gaunce played in the NHL in 2025-26, which is more than can be said for a lot of players in this first round. The contending Canucks gave him time to develop slowly, playing out two years in junior and then a year and a half in the AHL before joining the big club at the end of the 2015-16 season. He showed some promising offence in Utica after seeming to stagnate in the OHL, but when he got to the NHL it vanished. In 114 games for the Canucks between 2015 and 2018, he scored 5 goals and 12 points, putting up the second-lowest 5-on-5 point rate in the league ahead of only Jordin Tootoo in that span. That was pretty much it for his time in Vancouver; he had defensive promise and many Canucks fans wanted to keep him around, but Jim Benning had his sights on Jay Beagle for the fourth line centre role. He played a year in the Boston system, swung over to Sweden during COVID to win an SHL championship, and has been swinging back and forth between the AHL and various NHL fourth lines ever since. 200 NHL games played technically makes him a successful pick by the common standard, but I don’t think scouts expected his offence to completely evaporate at the highest level.
27th Overall Pick: Henrik Samuelsson (PHX)
Projection: A top six power forward who brings strong puck skills, defensive play, and a real mean streak. A weak skater who sometimes loses his head and takes bad penalties. Compared to Corey Perry by THW.
Outcome: The son of Ulf Samuelsson caught plenty of attention with his pesky and violent power forward game in junior, and won two championships with the Oil Kings before graduating to the AHL and putting in three testing-the-waters games with Coyotes. As it turned out, those were the only games he’d ever play in the NHL. In 2015 he suffered a significant ankle injury that required surgery; his skating was already a major concern and this took it down another level. His AHL production plummeted, he was traded to Edmonton, found himself in the ECHL, moved to the English league where he still struggled to produce, and then called it in 2021. He was far from a sure thing, but it seems likely that he at least would have gotten a few more kicks at the can without that injury.
28th Overall Pick: Brady Skjei (NYR)
Projection: A big, smooth-skating two-way top four defenceman. Doesn’t use his size much, but generally dependable and confident carrying the puck in transition. Compared to Bryan McCabe and Kyle Quincey by THW.
Outcome: There’s a running joke I’ve seen among public sphere hockey scouts that the most projectable player type is “big and can skate.” That certainly describes Skjei, who didn’t need much time to gain the trust of the Rangers after finishing three years of college and putting in one successful rookie campaign in the AHL. He scored 39 points with the Rangers at 22 (winning a spot on the all-rookie team), and while his production dropped after that he gained more and more trust to play second-pair match-up minutes. The up-and-coming Canes acquired him from the rebuilding Rangers in 2020, and while he didn’t find his footing there right away, the coaching staff clearly trusted him and he rewarded them with some steady 40-50 point seasons in top-pairing minutes. He signed a big-money-big-term deal with the Predators in 2024 and is currently playing a big match-up role for them. Credit to the scouts, they got this one right.
29th Overall Pick: Stefan Matteau (NJ)
Projection: A speedy, physical middle six power forward who plays an aggressive and sometimes undisciplined game. A limited skater and not much of a passer. Compared to Ryan Callahan and Alex Burrows by THW.
Outcome: A few weeks after Adam Henrique got revenge on the Rangers for “Matteau! Matteau! Matteau!” with an overtime winner in the 2012 Conference Finals, the Devils drafted Stéphane Matteau’s son Stéfan (really?). After starting his draft + 1 season in the QMJHL, he unexpectedly made the Devils’ roster in the lockout-shortened season, playing in 17 games before being returned to junior. While there, he was kicked off his team for repeated instances of insubordination, including refusing to get on the team bus after a playoff game because he was unhappy with his ice time. He wouldn’t make the Devils again until getting called up from the AHL in late 2015 for a seven game stint; he had one more look in 2015-16 (20 games, one point), where his skating was an issue, he didn’t assert himself physically, and he was rumoured have attitude issues around his ice time. He was shipped to the Habs and played 48 more NHL games between the Habs, Knights, Avalanche, and Blue Jackets with plenty of AHL time in between before calling it in 2025.
30th Overall Pick: Tanner Pearson (LA)
Projection: A versatile and smart middle-six two-way winger with good puck skills and a plus shot. Not especially speedy and question marks around consistency, but a hard worker. Compared to Alex Steen by THW.
Outcome: Pearson had been passed over twice in the draft which allowed the Kings to get a good look at him in their system right away, and he excelled with their AHL affiliate in 2012-13 and 2013-14 before graduating to the NHL. He had a pretty low-key first stint in the regular season, playing fourth-line minutes and not producing they well, but in the playoffs he teamed up with Jeff Carter and fellow rookie Tyler Toffoli to form “That 70’s Line” en route to a Stanley Cup. This wasn’t a sure-fire path to stardom, however, as he kept playing low minutes with spot duty in the top six until a 24-goal, 44-point performance in 2016-17. An uncharacteristically brutal start to the season with the Kings in 2018-19 saw him flipped to the Penguins for Carl Hagelin, and then flipped again to the Canucks for Erik Gudbranson. Vancouver turned out to be a pretty good fit from a production standpoint for a while, but once he fell off he was cap dumped to the Canadiens in 2023 and has since played depth minutes for Vegas, Winnipeg, and Buffalo. A classic utility winger, Pearson fulfilled his potential, contributing as a two-way middle-sixer who could move around the lineup if needed and playing over 750 games with a handful of 40-point seasons.