Leading up to the 2026-27 season, we’re going to look at the first round of a past NHL Draft every week. We’ve done 2011 and 2012, and today we look at the 2013. We’ll work our way to 2015.
We’ll go pick-by-pick: stars, fourth-liners, busts, and all. Using resources like TSN, The Hockey News, The Hockey Writers, and other surviving scouting resources from the early 2010s, I’ll boil down the general consensus projection and then see how that compared to what actually happened. My hope is that by reflecting on these players and the scouts’ predictions we’ll not just get a bit of nostalgia but also learn something about drafting, scouting, and realistically projecting future outcomes.
1st Overall Pick: Nathan MacKinnon (COL)
Projection: An elite number one centre with explosive acceleration and tons of skill, a shoot-first player but an excellent passer as well. Plays with pure intensity, strong on his skates, can contribute at both ends of the ice. Only limitation might be just-above-average hockey I.Q. Compared to Steven Stamkos by TSN and THW and Steve Yzerman by THW.
Outcome: MacKinnon stormed into the NHL at 18, helping the Avalanche to a shocking 112 point season and winning the 2014 Calder Trophy. However, while his game was improving, his production stagnated, the Avs were a bit of a mess around him, and his shot was not where is needed to be for him to be the elite contributor projected. Then, in 2017-18, a switch flipped and he instantly became one of the absolute most dangerous players in the league. Since then, he’s scored at a 44-goal, 118-point pace (third in the league in that span), won a Stanley Cup, a Hart, and a Rocket, and established himself as a no-doubt top three centre of his generation. He’s been everything scouts dreamed he could be to a tee: explosive, insanely competitive, well-rounded offensively, and game-breaking in every way.
2nd Overall Pick: Aleksander Barkov (FLA)
Projection: A number one two-way centre with a mature and confident 200-foot game. Size, strength, passing ability, and awareness compensate for average skating and physicality. Lacks an elite offensive ceiling. Compared to Anze Kopitar by TSN and Mikko Koivu by THW.
Outcome: Amid the frenzy around the top CHL prospects, some thought the Panthers played it a little safe going with the high-floor, mature Barkov instead of a more dynamic talent like Jonathan Drouin or Seth Jones. Wrong. Barkov was a franchise-altering pick, they key driver in the rebuild that got them to three Cup finals in a row and back-to-back championships. That should have been clear right away, when he instantly made the Panthers’ roster and drove play on a poor team in a second line role, and pretty soon he was a perennial 70+ point scorer with a knack for puck thievery. By 2017-18 he arguably ranked among the league’s top centres playing huge all-situations minutes, and he became a fixture in the Selke race while perennially producing at a 90+ point pace. Few would argue that he has inherited Patrice Bergeron’s mantle as the league’s top two-way centre, as he’s learned to use his size, reach, patience, playmaking, and awareness to dominate possession and shut down the best players in the league when the stakes are highest — two Cups as a captain is a testament to that.
3rd Overall Pick: Jonathan Drouin (TB)
Projection: A dynamic superstar winger with sensational hands, exceptional playmaking, elusive if not explosive skating, and elite hockey I.Q. and vision. Lacks size and physicality but is stocky and competes hard, low-floor but high-upside defensively. Compared to Patrick Kane by TSN and Claude Giroux by THW.
Outcome: In 2013, Martin St. Louis was 38 years old, and while he had just led the league in scoring, it was clear that the Bolts were going to need an elite playmaking winger to replace him and feed Steven Stamkos one-timers. That winger was… Nikita Kucherov. But in 2013, the idea of Drouin stepping into that role was exciting. It’s hard to recall now just how much hype Drouin had, with some scouts seeing him as superior to MacKinnon due to his ability to elevate his linemates and read the game. It was a surprise when he didn’t make the Lightning in 2013-14 and even more unexpected when, after continuing to torch the QMJHL, he found himself playing depth minutes with the Bolts in 2014-15 (while producing at a great clip considering that) and sitting in the press box in the postseason. Dealing with injury the next season, he notoriously battled with Lightning management over a demotion to the AHL with his agent Allan Walsh demanding a trade, but later got the hockey world’s attention with an eye-catching performance in the Conference Finals against the Penguins. Things seemed to be improving in 2016-17 as he finally got top-six ice-time and scored at a 60-point pace, but an offseason trade to the Canadiens for Mikhail Sergachev set things in motion that would cause his career to spiral. Drouin battled depression and insomnia during his time in Montréal, and while his production remained somewhat respectable, the bottom completely fell out of his defensive game and the team scrambled to maximize his strengths, putting him at centre and throwing him all over the lineup. Two successful seasons alongside MacKinnon in Colorado helped turn things around, but a contract signed with the Islanders in 2025 was bought out less than a year later and it remains to be seen what the future will hold for Drouin in the NHL.
4th Overall Pick: Seth Jones (NSH)
Projection: An elite number one two-way defenceman, blessed with size, skating, awareness, skill, shooting, and athleticism. Only lacks a mean streak. Compared to Drew Doughty by TSN and a combination of Shea Weber and Scott Niedermayer by THW.
Outcome: If you want to hear somebody talk with rapture and reverence in their voice, go back and listen to a hockey man talk about Seth Jones in 2013. Jones’ career has been a tremendous success — he’ll easily surpass 1,200 games, with at least eight seasons playing #1 defenceman deployment and a Stanley Cup to his name — and somehow it feels like he still hasn’t lived up to the way he was projected thirteen years ago. He was drafted into a bit of a strange situation with the Predators, who were busy assembling the most formidable blueline of the cap era, and didn’t hit his stride until he was acquired by Columbus and became a 24-26 minute a night fixture next to Zach Werenski. By 2017-18 he was starting to get hyped as an elite defender and finished 4th in Norris voting, and although he was never an analytical darling at even strength he was always visible on the ice and did a lot of heavy lifting in the defensive zone, carried the puck in transition, and pitched in on both special teams. He wasn’t capable of being the Blackhawks’ franchise defenceman after a blockbuster trade in 2021, but has fit in very well in the Panthers’ system and led them in ice time en route to a Stanley Cup. What scouts identified as Jones being elite at everything was maybe closer to him being above-average at everything, but with the athleticism to carry a very heavy burden.
5th Overall Pick: Elias Lindholm (CAR)
Projection: A responsible top-six two-way centre with high I.Q. and versatility. A gifted passer who can make plays in tight, good offensive positioning off the puck but not a great shooter. Compared to David Krejci by TSN and Peter Forsberg by THW.
Outcome: The Lindholm we see in the NHL is not that much different than the one described in the projection, but he’s often been a tricky player to get a real handle on. At no point in his career has he been a real driver; whether he was working his way up the lineup in Carolina, scoring goals in Calgary, or filling in blanks for the Bruins. Since the draft, he ranks 99th out of 147 eligible forwards in 5-on-5 goal rate and 100th in 5-on-5 primary assists. He got a Selke nomination in 2022, but his defensive responsibilities were somewhat lessened by the fact that Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk seemingly never gave up the puck. Maybe I’m underselling him — despite not being a puck-dominant player, Lindholm is approaching 1,000 games with a lot of time as a 1st liner, ten straight seasons above a 45 point pace, and a reputation for adapting to and supporting his line-mates all over the ice.
6th Overall Pick: Sean Monahan (CGY)
Projection: A versatile top-six two-way centre who’s opportunistic and has a great touch around the net. Not flashy and a limited skater but has a great feel for the game and will contribute whatever is needed to help his team win. Compared to Jonathan Toews by TSN and Patrice Bergeron by THW.
Outcome: You can understand why the idea of a Jonathan Toews-esque top line centre was very appealing in 2013. That’s not quite what Monahan turned out to be. He made the NHL right away at 18 and was one of the league’s most efficient 5-on-5 scorers, a quality that would be crucial to his success as he established himself alongside the Flames’ burgeoning surprise star Johnny Gaudreau. This was a pretty sweet gig for an off-puck scorer, and Monahan scored at a 30-goal pace three times and a 60-point pace four times in his six seasons as the team’s first line centre, topping out at a 36-goal, 86-point pace in 2018-19. Injuries and declining play (both the cause of and result of the loss of his spot next to Gaudreau to the man drafted a spot ahead of him) led to a notorious cap dump trade to Montréal which helped re-energize his career, and he’s re-established himself as a steady top-six contributor with the Blue Jackets, including producing at a career-high pace the season after the tragic loss of his best friend Gaudreau in the 2024 offseason. Monahan didn’t pan out as the defensive impact player envisioned at the draft — although the reputation did stick with him in Calgary — but the rest of his report checks out and is a big reason he can continue to pitch in effectively for the Jackets as a fill-in-the-blanks utility player complementing more puck-dominant line-mates.
7th Overall Pick: Darnell Nurse (EDM)
Projection: A big and mobile minute-munching two-way defenceman with a balanced skill-set who can move the puck smartly. Tough to play against, with physicality at the net-front and a nasty edge. Compared to Johnny Boychuk by TSN, Chris Pronger by THN, and Brooks Orpik by THW.
Outcome: Nurse profiled as a player the forward-heavy Oilers desperately needed, an all-round stabilizer who could fill the hole their blueline had since Pronger left town in 2006. While there were red flags that he was not the #1 defenceman they needed to anchor a contender in the McDavid/Draisaitl era, the Oilers ignored them and paid him like an elite player after an outlier shortened season, a contract that they finally got off the books this summer. That deal has given Nurse perhaps an unfairly bad rap, and there are plenty of positive attributes about his game, many of which were identified when he was a prospect: athleticism, mobility, and physicality at the net-front, for example. He’s a solid #3 defenceman, although admittedly he has struggled a lot in the postseason in his career in a way that would likely have surprised many scouts based on his profile.
8th Overall Pick: Rasmus Ristolainen (BUF)
Projection: A toolsy top-pair two-way defenceman with size and offensive skill. Plays a calm, composed game and moves the puck well with a big point shot. Compared to Chris Pronger by THW.
Outcome: Only Jones and MacKinnon have played more regular-season NHL hockey than Ristolainen among the 2013 draftees, which automatically makes him a successful pick by general scouting standards. As we all know, though, he didn’t come by that deployment by being an instant star but by being wildly over-relied-upon by dreadful Sabres teams who forced him to be something he wasn’t: an all-situations 25-minute-a-night number one defenceman by the time he was 20 years old. His career 43% 5-on-5 goal share is the worst among 141 defencemen to play 500+ games since 2013, as is his 46% shot share — not entirely his fault considering his circumstances, of course. Recent redemption in a simpler, second-pair role in Philadelphia have supported the notion that he was wildly miscast, but even watching him with the Flyers it’s a bit tough to square the calm, adept puck-mover depicted in the scouting reports with the often chaotic player he’s turned out to be at the NHL level.
9th Overall Pick: Bo Horvat (VAN)
Projection: An all-situations two-way top-six centre who can score. High-character player with a high I.Q. and major competitiveness. Compared to Ryan O’Reilly and Patrice Bergeron by TSN.
Outcome: There was a lot of pressure on Horvat to lead the Canucks’ rebuild/re-tool as the Sedin contention window slammed shut, and while he never developed into a true number one centre in Vancouver, he did eventually play those minutes for the team and wore the “C” for four seasons. His production increased modestly in each of his first six seasons with the Canucks, ultimately landing around a respectable 30+30, and since being traded to the Islanders he’s been more of a 35+30 guy and even got onto Canada’s Olympic team after starting the 2025-26 red-hot. He’s never really lived up to all that defensive hype, although teams do like playing him in that match-up role, and scouts may have undersold his shot and skating, but the high hockey I.Q. and terrific off-puck timing definitely turned out to be pillars of his game.
10th Overall Pick: Valeri Nichushkin (DAL)
Projection: A speedy top-line power forward who’s impossible to contain off the rush with his size, balance, skating, and hands. Plays with determination on the forecheck. Question marks around shot and vision. Compared to Rick Nash by TSN and THW.
Outcome: The Stars took a real shot with Nichushkin, who was falling in the draft as teams struggled to work out whether his raw, straight-line speed-and-size game would work against NHLers. They absorbed a good amount of risk but saw little reward; he stalled out in his first three seasons, left for Russia for two years, and then came back to Dallas only to score zero goals and get bought out. Even though he didn’t score and played fourth line minutes, there was something intriguing about his final season in Texas though, and the Avalanche took a chance on the speed and forechecking (and maybe his sky-high penalty differential as well). He was a perfect fit in a third-line checking role before breaking out in 2021-22, scoring at a 33-goal, 69-point pace while playing exceptional two-way hockey and helping the team win the Stanley Cup. Off the ice it hasn’t been entirely smooth sailing since then and he’s missed a good chunk of time, but a 31-goal, 67-point over the past four seasons is certainly more than the Stars expected when they cut bait.
11th Overall Pick: Samuel Morin (PHI)
Projection: A tall, aggressive #2/#3 defensive defenceman with long reach and decent speed if not agility. Pretty good puck-moving and shot but not an offensive driver. Competitive and willing to fight. Compared to Luke Schenn by THW.
Outcome: Morin was a late riser, leaping up draft rankings in the second half of the 2012-13 season, with scouts excited by some offensive flashes and apparent improvement in skating. There are two aspects to the Morin story. On one hand, there’s a decent chance that he simply did not have the tools to become an impact NHLer, as his puck skills weren’t really there and he struggled to defend against pros once he got to the AHL. On the other, he never really had the chance due to a succession of brutal knee injuries — never good news at 6’6 200 lbs. After he turned 22 he played only 28 NHL games and 27 AHL games over the course of four seasons. He did get an NHL goal before having to call it at least.
12th Overall Pick: Max Domi (PHX)
Projection: A top six offensive forward with superb vision, puck skills, playmaking, and quickness. Competitive and confident, strong and stocky despite being undersized. Lacking in defensive consistency. Compared to Martin St. Louis by TSN and THW.
Outcome: Ask a knowledgeable hockey fan to guess the top 10 players in 5-on-5 primary assist rate since 2013 and they’d probably get at least eight of them (nine if they don’t underrate David Pastrnak’s playmaking). I’m willing to bet they don’t guess Domi, who ranks 10th. Since stepping into the league he has been an intriguing but often frustrating player, consistently effective in some areas but a liability in others. He’s scored at at least a 40-point pace in eight of his 11 NHL seasons across seven teams, never less than 36, and got to 72 with the Canadiens in 2018-19. For all of Domi’s effectiveness as a passer, notwithstanding a few outlier seasons he’s been a poor goal-scorer, a defensive liability, and far too eager to put his team shorthanded. That makes him a bit hard to slot in a line-up, which is probably why he’s ended up on so many teams and in so many types of deployment over the years. If he can recover from the injury that’s poised to keep him out for at least a big chunk of the 2026-27 season, he will almost certainly pass 500 points, and has a good chance of hitting 1,000 career games.
13th Overall Pick: Josh Morrissey (WPG)
Projection: A versatile #2/#3 puck-moving two-way defenceman with great hockey I.Q., skating, defensive skills, and physicality. Undersized, will need a lot of development. Compared to Kris Letang by THW and Gary Suter and Niklas Kronwall by TSN.
Outcome: There are two Josh Morrisseys: the one who played from 2016-17 to 2021-22 and provided a steadying presence next to Jacob Trouba before struggling to shoulder the Jets’ #1 defenceman role paired with to Tucker Poolman after Trouba left, and the one we’ve seen since then. The former looked like the solid second pairing two-way defender the scouts described ahead of the draft: steady, smart, and physical for his size. The latter has demolished expectations, contributing as a top offensive defenceman and working his way into the Norris conversation three years in a row. His superb skating and passing ability are still present, but given a green light to really create he’s revealed a ton of creativity to go with his high precision in all three zones. He was a reach at 13th (McKenzie’s consensus list had him at 28) but he’s a crucial part of Winnipeg’s absurd Scheifele-Trouba-Morrissey-Ehlers-Connor first round pick gauntlet.
14th Overall Pick: Alex Wennberg (CBJ)
Projection: A dynamic top-six two-way centre with dazzling hands and good wheels. Patient with the puck, doesn’t force plays, versatile and elusive. Compared to Henrik Zetterberg by THW.
Outcome: When the Jackets picked Wennberg 14th, they didn’t realize they’d picked a generational player. But that’s exactly what they did: Wennberg is generational at not shooting the puck. Among 147 forwards with 700 games since 2013, Wennberg ranks dead last in goals, expected goals, shots, and attempts per 60 at 5-on-5, and not by a small amount either. And still he’s stuck around, with 867 games and almost $50 million in earnings to his name, a testament to his stabilizing two-way game and solid playmaking ability. He’s usually a safe bet to put up 40ish points a season in a middle-six role, not too shabby since he’s gotten to double-digits in 5-on-5 goals just once. Dynamic and dazzling he is not, but teams obviously value having him around.
15th Overall Pick: Ryan Pulock (NYI)
Projection: A #2/#3 offensive defenceman with a hammer of a shot; steady, smart, and capable of handling a heavy minute load. Strong but a bit undersized, a likely PP1. Compared to Tom Gilbert by TSN and Kevin Shattenkirk by THW.
Outcome: Pulock was expected to take awhile to get to the NHL, and while he got a bit of a show-case in his draft + 3 season, it took until he was 23 to solidify a proper role with the team. Once he did, it didn’t take long for him to become a fixture in the Islanders’ top four and eventually their top pairing with Adam Pelech that was one of the league’s top defensive units. He’s still playing over 20 minutes a night, although the results are not what they once were. It’s the steadiness more than the offence that has driven his success in Long Island, as his production (including goal-scoring with that extremely heavy slapshot) has been decent but unremarkable at 5-on-5 and poor on the powerplay over the course of his career.
16th Overall Pick: Nikita Zadorov (BUF)
Projection: A huge top four defensive defenceman who skates well for his size and can move and shoot the puck. Punishing and disruptive in his own end. Compared to Larry Robinson by TSN and Dion Phaneuf by THW.
Outcome: It’s not tough to talk a GM into “big man who skates good,” especially when he throws body-checks the way Zadorov used to in junior. For all the talk about how raw a prospect he was, the Sabres wasted little time getting him into the line-up in 2014-15 before including him in the Ryan O’Reilly trade. From there he slowly but surely worked to improve his overall game, especially on defence, until he could be relied upon to anchor a middle pairing defensively for the Avs, Blackhawks, Flames, Canucks, and now Bruins. Not that this shutdown presence diminished from the chaos he brings on the ice — he has maintained an ultra-aggressive approach to shutting down opponents and among blueliners he ranks 3rd in hits, 2nd in minor penalties, and 8th in major penalties since 2013. At times he’s shown a genuine aptitude for making things happen with the puck including a solid first pass, but that’s generally been a fringe aspect of his game.
17th Overall Pick: Curtis Lazar (OTT)
Projection: A versatile middle-six all-around forward who gets to the dangerous areas of the ice at the right time and plays well through contact. A high-character player who will contribute even if he ends up down the lineup. Compared to Mike Fisher by THW.
Outcome: Lazar was a safe bet to carve out an NHL career even if he didn’t develop, thanks to his adaptability, smarts, strength, and work ethic. That’s pretty much what happened. Coming up in the Senators system alongside Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, Lazar joined the pro team in a full-time role at age 19, played some third line minutes, ate a burger off the ice, and completely stalled out. The Senators were able to turn him into a 2nd round pick at the 2017 trade deadline as the Flames took a shot at developing him, and they soon realized that whatever untapped potential existed, it was about maximizing his utility as a fourth liner. He’s played over 600 games for seven teams with career-high marks of eight goals and 25 points, and never more than 14 minutes a night. That’s impressive longevity for a depth player and likely speaks to his character.
18th Overall Pick: Mirco Mueller (SJ)
Projection: A smooth-skating versatile two-way defenceman with size and athleticism. Not overwhelmingly skilled, but mobile, calm, and smart. Compared to Marc-Édouard Vlasic and Roman Josi by TSN and Dan Hamhuis by THW.
Outcome: The contending Sharks traded up to secure Mueller, a late riser who seemed poised to potentially anchor their second pairing moving forward. That plan did not pan out. He made the NHL squad ahead of schedule at 19 and started the season as a safety blanket next to Brent Burns, but soon found himself in the press box and with little trust from coach Todd McLellan. Two seasons in the AHL with spot call-up duty and minuscule minutes for the Sharks was enough, and they sent him to the Devils for a 2nd round pick. He played three pretty good seasons of low-event third-pair hockey for them, using his skating effectively but never developing much of an offensive or puck-moving game; that continues to be the case in the Swiss National League, where he’s played since 2021-22.
19th Overall Pick: Kerby Rychel (CBJ)
Projection: A top-six power forward with a nose for the net and scoring ability. Aggressive and competitive, possibly lacking in skating and offensive skill. Compared to Gary Roberts by TSN and Dustin Brown by THW.
Outcome: Rychel seemed like a sure thing to become at least a full-time NHL player given his size and scoring pedigree (two 40-goal seasons in the OHL before draft day, a great OHL draft + 1, solid draft + 2 AHL production). The story of why he only played 43 NHL games and went through four organizations in four seasons between 2015-16 and 2018-19 seems to require a whole lot of hearsay to tell. His dad, who had been his GM in Windsor, seems to have been a bit too involved in his career, and in Columbus there were rumours of constant pressure for more ice time and trade requests. Unfortunately, the holes in his game including skating, passing, hockey I.Q., defence, and discipline meant he was leapfrogged by the Jackets’ other youngsters and coach John Tortorella wasn’t the type to be handing out spots in the top nine. When he was given top line AHL minutes he produced the same way he did in the OHL, with a high-volume net-crashing game, but even if the Rychel camp disagreed, he wasn’t good enough and was too much of a headache to keep around. After the Flames left him unsigned in 2019, he crashed out: cut from a Swedish team for showing up in terrible shape, cut from a Russian team after seven scoreless games, and suspended by Charlotte of the AHL after six games.
20th Overall Pick: Anthony Mantha (DET)
Projection: A top-six scoring winger with an elite shot, smart positioning, plus skating, and good handling. Excellent size but limited physicality and frustrates with inconsistent competitiveness and defensive play. Compared to James Neal by TSN and Thomas Vanek by THW.
Outcome: People looking at Mantha have always focused on what he’s not: not physical despite the size, not consistent, not always healthy, et cetera. He’s frustrated more than one organization by not playing the power forward scoring game you dream of when you see his 6’5 240 pound frame, his casual speed, and the velocity of his shot. It may be a shame that his 33 goals and 64 points in 2025-26 were by far career-highs given his abilities, but his overall impact on the ice has generally been more subtle than his physical characteristics; even when he was on the terrible post-2016 Red Wings he always handily won his minutes and his defensive results were always strong, and his scoring totals have been diminished by somewhat limited opportunity as he ranks 37th in 5-on-5 goals per 60 since the draft. The inconsistency and intensity problems are real though, and it’s tough to hide difficult stretches when you’re the biggest guy on the ice.
21st Overall Pick: Frederik Gauthier (TOR)
Projection: A big defensive centre, terrific reach and size combined with high-end smarts. Wide range of possibilities in terms of offensive development, limited as a skater. Compared to Jordan Staal by TSN, Martin Hanzal by THN, and Sean Couturier by THW.
Outcome: Despite some of the very generous comparables, Gauthier was sold as a safe pick who was practically guaranteed to be a bottom six shut-down centre and penalty killer for a long time; given the attention he received as a Toronto first-rounder, he might be the classic example of a low-ceiling, high-floor mid-first round pick. The floor was a lot lower than expected, however. His QMJHL projection regressed in each of his post-draft seasons, he mostly blended in with the furniture early in his AHL career, and was just okay in some brief NHL appearances. The Leafs invested a lot of effort in developing him into the 4th line centre that would anchor their new contending core, but they only got two full seasons of okay depth hockey out of it before letting him walk. He still plays in the Swiss league, and does not produce there much either.
22nd Overall Pick: Emile Poirier (CGY)
Projection: A speedy top-six forward with a ton of energy. Solid offensive skill but question marks around strength and consistency. Compared to Tuomo Ruutu by TSN and Alex Tanguay by THW.
Outcome: Poirier did not pan out, playing eight NHL games with one assist, becoming a full-time AHLer at 21, running the European league gauntlet, and currently playing in the LNAH. At the time, he was outspoken about the effect that his alcohol addiction played in derailing his career, and once he was surpassed in the Flames system by their new crop of young players there were some rumours that teams might be spooked out of giving him a chance because of it. It’s also possible that Poirier, who was a late riser projected in the second round and considered a serious reach, also did not have the skills to stick regardless, but of course we’ll never know.
23rd Overall Pick: Andre Burakovsky (WSH)
Projection: A speedy top-six forward with great hands and game-breaking ability to beat defencemen one-on-one. Concerns that he might lack vision to involve his teammates. Compared to Viktor Stalberg by TSN and Alex Semin by THW.
Outcome: Burakovsky was a bit of wild card, with scouts disagreeing about his shot and whether he’d be able to round out his game and not get stuck forcing perimeter plays. He’s ended up an indisputably successful pick, a full-time NHLer since age 19 with over 750 games played and over 400 points who has generally provided some efficient middle-six scoring punch. His 5-on-5 primary point production rate exceeds some key players drafted higher from him like Bo Horvat and Sean Monahan, and while he’s never been much of a play-driver he peaked as one of the best bang-for-your-buck scorers during his Cup-winning stint with the Avalanche.
24th Overall Pick: Hunter Shinkaruk (VAN)
Projection: A skilled top-six scoring forward with elite hands and high-end skating ability. Undersized but competitive and willing to pay the price to get to the net. Compared to Zach Parise by TSN.
Outcome: One of the draft’s bigger fallers relative to TSN’s consensus lists, Shinkaruk did not pan out like the Canucks expected. An untimely hip injury suffered in his age 19 season (which he reportedly tried to conceal to get onto Canada’s World Junior team) took some edge off his skating, which already might not have been as strong as some scouts had projected. He lacked aptitude and effort in the defensive areas of the game and was a bit of a one-trick pony who maxed out at the junior level — if he was going to stick it had to be as an all-offence scorer, and he just wasn’t good enough for that. Some rumours were also out there about poor attitude and too much involvement from his parents. In any event, the Canucks controversially cut bait quick after just one NHL game despite strong AHL production in his age-20 season, and that ended up being the right call as he played only 14 more NHL games, stagnated in the AHL, and left for Europe.
25th Overall Pick: Michael McCarron (MTL)
Projection: A top-six power forward who plays a simple game centring around his size and strength. Decent hands suggest a bit of offensive potential. Compared to Bryan Bickell by TSN and Brian Boyle by THW.
Outcome: Objectively, McCarron has been a successful pick. He’ll pass 500 games played, hundreds more than many of the players selected above him. It took a while to get there though. One scout quoted in the Hockey News said “you wonder if he’s going to be the next big power forward or the next Brad Winchester,” and he ended up a lot closer to the latter than the former. Teams don’t dream of getting that fourth line player in the first round, but there are certainly worse outcomes. The key development for McCarron, who did not produce well for his age in junior and is one of the least productive forwards in the NHL since the draft, is his switch to centre and improvements in the dot, where as a big right-handed player he became a legitimate asset during his time in Nashville after the Habs gave up on him. He was traded for a 2nd round pick at the deadline this season and signed a sizable extension with the Wild.
26th Overall Pick: Shea Theodore (ANA)
Projection: An offensive defenceman and powerplay contributor with superb skating, vision, and puck-moving. Weak defensively and needs to get much stronger. Compared to Joni Pitkanen by TSN and Mike Green by THW.
Outcome: Theodore’s development took a while, as expected, but he became one of the best players in this draft, rewarding the Ducks’ patience by making them look like fools for offering him up to the Golden Knights as inducement to avoid selecting their unprotected young defencemen. When he left the Ducks in 2017, he was already showing promising signs of becoming a legitimate top-four offensive defenceman with shifty skating, but two years later it was clear that they had given up a special player. Since 2013, among 109 defencemen with over 600 games played, he ranks 13th in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes, 4th in primary assists per 60, and 7th in primary points per 60, and played, and while he tends to miss some games every season he’s got six seasons above a 50-point pace and two above a 70-point pace. Even Anaheim can’t have imagined they were drafting a future Olympian.
27th Overall Pick: Marko Dano (CBJ)
Projection: A clever middle-six offensive centre with a versatile skill-set. Undersized but stocky and competitive, not afraid to go to dirty areas of the ice. Compared to Mikael Backlund by TSN.
Outcome: The Jackets might have been onto something when they reached for Dano, considered to be one of the most uncertain players in the draft, but he was burned by circumstance. He showed a lot of promise in a third-line role in his first season in Columbus at age 19: extremely efficient 5-on-5 production with pristine underlying numbers. Then he got traded to Chicago for Brandon Saad, found himself in Joel Quenneville’s dog-house, was included in the Andrew Ladd trade to Winnipeg, and found himself stuck behind their impressive forward depth. Soon he was just a fill-in guy for the Avalanche and briefly the Jackets again, and then off to Europe. It’s possible that if the Jackets had kept him he might have become a solid 500-game utility player, but undersized guys who lack separating offensive skill have a tough hill to climb, especially when they’re no longer a development priority.
28th Overall Pick: Morgan Klimchuk (CGY)
Projection: A versatile top-six winger with great hockey sense and determination. A complementary player, not a driver. Compared to Steve Larmer by TSN.
Outcome: Some players just slip through the cracks, and Klimchuk seems to have been one of them. In theory he should have had the pieces to at least get a bit of time in as an NHLer given his smart complementary game and work ethic, but the Flames didn’t have much room for him on the roster given their left wing depth even when he was producing well as a 20- and 21-year-old in the AHL, and all he got was one NHL single game before being pushed down the minor league lineup, getting traded around to play depth AHL minutes, and then retiring to become an assistant coach. Another “safe” pick who just couldn’t set himself apart to grab even a depth role.
29th Overall Pick: Jason Dickinson (DAL)
Projection: A smart and competitive two-way forward with terrific skating, an unfinished product who could have untapped offensive potential when he gets bigger and less soft. Compared to Justin Williams and Jay McClement by TSN.
Outcome: Once again, the Stars made a clever selection and didn’t end up really seeing the pay-off. There was a lot of uncertainty around Dickinson’s projection, as some scouts saw major offensive potential and others saw a defensive depth piece. The latter set turned out to be spot on, but the McCelement comparison turned out to be unflattering nonetheless. Dickinson’s steady, hard-working defensive game has ranked among the NHL’s best since the draft, and he built his way up to earning a middle-six role despite not being an offensive contributor (aside from a decent shot he sometimes remembers to put to use). The Stars traded him for a 3rd round pick in 2021, the Canucks traded him for a 2nd in 2022, and the Blackhawks traded him for a 1st in 2026, a testament to his establishment as one of the top shut-down centres in the league. He’ll likely pass 750 games.
30th Overall Pick: Ryan Hartman (CHI)
Projection: A competitive and versatile forward who can play the wing or centre. An agitator who teams will hate to play against, chippy and willing to engage in the corners, on the forecheck, and in front of the net. Smart and a good skater with solid skill, but not huge offensive upside. Compared to Ryan Callahan by THW and TSN.
Outcome: Hartman’s got a good gig these days in Minnesota, scoring around 45-50 points a year in a second-line middle six role with some powerplay time. It took quite awhile for him to get there though. As with a couple of the Blackhawks’ mid-2010s draft picks, he seemed like the perfect type of player to bolster their lineup and keep their window alive, especially since his rookie season coincided with the departure of agitator Andrew Shaw. He scored 19 goals in 2016-17 but couldn’t keep coach Quenneville on board and began a gauntlet of trades: in 2018 to the Predators for a 1st, in 2019 to the Flyers for a washed-up Wayne Simmonds, and in 2019 again to the Stars for Tyler Pitlick. By the end of that run, he was an unqualified free agent signed for fourth-liner money by the Wild. His first two seasons in Minnesota were same-old-same-old — decent gritty two-way hockey, some penalty killing, too many penalties — but the hockey gods clearly looked at him favourably because he ended up centring a line with Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov in 2021-22 that would transform his career. No one would call him a driver, but he gets to dangerous areas, has the skill to contribute, and bugs opponents enough to be a useful utility player.