Leading up to the 2026-27 season, we’re going to look at the first round of a past NHL Draft every week. We’ve done 2011, 2012, and 2013, and today we look at 2014. We’ll work our way to 2015.
We’ll go pick-by-pick: stars, fourth-liners, busts, and all. Using resources like TSN, The Hockey News, The Hockey Writers, and other surviving scouting resources from the early 2010s, I’ll boil down the general consensus projection and then see how that compared to what actually happened. My hope is that by reflecting on these players and the scouts’ predictions we’ll not just get a bit of nostalgia but also learn something about drafting, scouting, and realistically projecting future outcomes.
1st Overall Pick: Aaron Ekblad (FLA)
Projection: A top pair two-way defenceman with tremendous physicality, a booming shot, and exceptional leadership. Poised and mature in all three zones, capable of handling difficult minutes and dominating in dirty areas. Might lack dynamic offensive skill and footspeed. Compared to Brent Seabrook by TSN and Shea Weber by THW.
Outcome: Ekblad was the first defenceman granted exceptional status by the CHL, and the physical maturity he showed as a 16- and 17-year old in the OHL played a big part in how excited hockey people were about him. While scouts can sometimes get carried away when talking about big minute munching defensive prospects, their expectations of Ekblad actually turned out to be quite fair. He’s played the 20th-most minutes of any defenceman since 2014, averaging just under 23 minutes a night and primarily playing as a top-pairing player for the Panthers. As a toolsy, versatile D, he’s slotted into different roles for his team, occasionally carrying the load a bit more offensively but succeeding most when paired with a more puck-dominant partner like Brian Campbell, MacKenzie Weegar, or Gustav Forsling. He hasn’t always been an analytical darling (players of his archetype often seem to have more inconsistency in their underlying impacts) and only received serious Norris consideration once in his career, but he is well-suited to the playoffs due to his physical strength and effectiveness at taking advantage of looser rules in dirty areas, and played a big role in both Panthers Cup wins.
2nd Overall Pick: Sam Reinhart (BUF)
Projection: A playmaking first line two-way centre whose main weapon is exceptional intelligence. Controls the pace of the game in the offensive zone, compensating for ordinary size and below-average skating with superb vision. Increasingly strong defensively with an effective stick. Compared to Henrik Zetterberg by TSN and John Tavares by THW.
Outcome: Reinhart’s career has taken some twists and turns, but the sparkling intelligence has always been the dominant part of his game as he’s developed from a promising two-way forward with 45-55 point production to a point-per-game elite scorer. He’s scored 20 goals in 10 of his 11 NHL seasons, peaking at 57 in 2023-24, and has generally paired that production with elite defensive play — he ranks third among forwards in defensive Wins Above Replacement since the draft. Lack of tools such as skating and physicality have impacted the way he approaches the game and the extent to which coaches are comfortable playing him at centre, but his vision and details are so strong that he’s comprehensively been able to overcome them, dissecting defences with one-touch passing plays, dominating off-the-puck, and shutting down opponents with clever stick work and expert positioning.
3rd Overall Pick: Leon Draisaitl (EDM)
Projection: A first line playmaking centre with elite vision and anticipation. Makes the players around him better, buying time in the offensive zone with his handling and puck protection abilities and catching defenders off-guard with unexpected passes to the slot. Often reluctant to shoot the puck, although does show upside with his release. A questionable skater, patchy defensively. Compared to Joe Thornton by TSN and THN, and Jaromir Jagr by THW.
Outcome: I doubt that even the Oilers realized that their 3rd overall pick was about to blow their trio of 1st overalls out of the water, but of course we know that that’s what happened. The scouts were dead-on about Draisaitl’s ability to combine vision, handling, puck-protection, and distribution to dominate as a playmaker in the offensive zone, and he ranks top-ten in primary assist and assist rate since 2014 for good reason. What they justifiably under-estimated was how after 2018 he would bolster that package with some of the most pinpoint accurate sniping in the league, becoming the game’s most dangerous powerplay scorer and the only reliable 19% shooter of the cap era. On draft day, Draisaitl’s pair of 70-point seasons in 2016-17 and 2017-18 would have looked like a pretty good outcome for this player; the 50-goal, 118-point pace he’s had in the eight seasons since (not to mention the 49-goal 135-point playoff pace) would be shocking. The skating still doesn’t look pretty but it is powerful, and the longstanding defensive weaknesses are a bit more permissible given his Hall of Fame offensive ability.
4th Overall Pick: Sam Bennett (CGY)
Projection: A versatile two-way forward who can play a finesse handling and playmaking game or grind it out in the corners. High motor and endless competitiveness, playing much bigger than his size. Elite hockey I.Q. Compared to Doug Gilmour by TSN and Joe Pavelski by THW.
Outcome: Sometimes a player has the talent to succeed and is really not in the right environment to do so. Bennett is one of those players. From 2014 to 2020, he played a high-energy but ultimately pretty ineffective bottom-six game for the Flames, with poor production and play-driving combined with a temper that often got him in penalty trouble. He showed occasional flashes when playing higher in the lineup but not enough to keep him there. A trade to Florida for a 2nd round pick completely turned his career around, revealing that the tools from his draft projection were still there and just needed the opportunity to blossom. His blend of finesse and grime looks a lot more compelling on the Panthers’ second line next to Matthew Tkachuk than it did on the Flames’ fourth line, and his ability to carry the puck up-ice, finish checks, and extend possessions played a key role in winning back-to-back Cups and the 2025 Conn Smythe trophy. He’s still maxed out as a 25ish goal, 50-ish point player and hasn’t quite lived up to his draft position or comparables in the regular season, but I’m pretty sure Florida isn’t complaining.
5th Overall Pick: Michael Dal Colle (NYI)
Projection: A top six scoring winger with elite puck-handling ability and skill as a distributor. Not fast, but elusive. Solid size who should fill out well, absorbs contact well but doesn’t dish it out. A riser with lots of upside. Question marks defensively and around skating. Compared to Patrick Marleau by TSN and Eric Staal by THW.
Outcome: The biggest bust of this draft class, scouts recognized relatively weak areas of Dal Colle’s game (namely skating and intensity) but did not predict how much they would ultimately hold him back. Instead of taking off post-draft, he stagnated, and once he got to the AHL at 20 he was already getting leapfrogged by other players in the Islanders’ system. He managed two seasons as a depth piece in the NHL before ending up back in the minors and over to Europe, where it appears his career might be coming to an end. One of the things you see most in Dal Colle pre-draft reports is how much untapped potential and upside scouts saw in him — if he gets stronger, if he improves his skating, etc. As it turned out, the opposite was true, and as he stagnated, the projection fell from offensive driver to complementary scorer, and without the skill to get a spot with Tavares or Barzal he didn’t have much utility.
6th Overall Pick: Jake Virtanen (VAN)
Projection: A fast and physical top six scoring winger who plays a simple north-south game with separating speed. Aggressive on the forecheck and has an excellent shot. Loses composure a bit too easily, and lacks creativity and hockey I.Q. Compared to Kyle Okposo by TSN and Darcy Tucker by THW.
Outcome: Speed, scoring, and physicality is bound to grab the attention of certain GMs, even when there are red flags present. As with Dal Colle, scouts were excited about the Virtanen’s upside, and as one of the youngest players in the draft the hope was that he would progress dramatically in his first post-draft season. Instead, like Dal Colle, he stagnated, and the tone would set for what was to be a disappointing tenure in the Canucks’ system. He quickly earned the ire of Vancouver fans with his lack of effort on the ice and a habit of showing up to training camp overweight, and across five full seasons on the NHL roster his one-dimensional rushing game kept him in the bottom six before he left for Europe after the shortened 2021 season.
7th Overall Pick: Haydn Fleury (CAR)
Projection: A steady two-way jack-of-all-trades #3 defenceman with size and mobility. A plus player in almost every area with few weaknesses, although he leaves you wanting a bit more in terms of puck skills and assertiveness. Compared to Marc Staal by TSN and Ben Lovejoy and Marc-Édouard Vlasic by THW.
Outcome: Fleury could end his NHL career with over 400 games played (he’s currently at 345), so you can’t call him a bust, but there’s no doubt that a journeyman run as a fringe third-pairing defenceman is not what scouts had in mind when they pegged him as a top-ten calibre player. He was not a stand-out producer in junior and it seems like the projected offensive upside was pure optimism; as he developed in the WHL, the AHL, and eventually the NHL, his game was defined by steady, smart defensive hockey with a touch of physicality but not enough stand-out ability to break onto the Hurricanes’ stacked top four. By the time he was traded and later claimed by Seattle in the expansion draft, his development race was pretty much run and he was locked in as a depth player.
8th Overall Pick: William Nylander (TOR)
Projection: A top line playmaking winger with dazzling skills and confidence handling and distributing the puck. Quick and crafty, sees the ice very well, and can shoot very well. Undersized, flawed defensively, and can get carried away trying to do too much himself. Compared to Patrick Kane by TSN and Jeff Skinner by THW.
Outcome: Selecting an undersized pure skill Swedish winger was not an uncontroversial way for the Leafs to start off their much-delayed rebuild, but it turned out to be clearly the right decision. Though some Toronto fans used the supposedly soft and selfish Nylander as the avatar for everything they thought was wrong with the team in the late 2010s, the way Willy hit his potential in the 2020s has silenced the critics; since 2021 he’s scored at a 40-goal, 90-point pace and been the team’s most consistent postseason producer. Not only did he maximize all the skills he was celebrated for as a prospect, he also added a lot of strength which has allowed him to further extend his puck possession skill and open up the dirty areas of the ice for net-drives. The defence never really improved, but it’s hard to care too much about that given his offensive weapons.
9th Overall Pick: Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG)
Projection: A dynamic top line dual threat offensive winger who creates in transition with elite wheels. A competitor who’s crafty in small areas, even though he’s undersized. Compared to Jonathan Drouin by TSN and Patrick Kane by THW.
Outcome: Ehlers was part of the Jets’ incredible run of first round picks that also included Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, and Connor, although it seemed at times that they didn’t fully appreciate what they had found at 9th overall. Since the draft, Ehlers ranks 17th in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes, 20th in points per 60, and 17th in Wins Above Replacement per 60, and using rate stats is key here because as a Jet he rarely got the minutes that his performance would generally dictate. Nonetheless, he’s had a very successful career with nine seasons above a 60 point pace including four above 70, and he has recently proven that his finesse game can translate in the postseason as well with a point-per-game playoffs en route to a Stanley Cup in 2026. The NHL version of Ehlers sounds just about exactly like the scouts’ projection, including the underrated edge to his game which got a big playoff showcase this spring.
10th Overall Pick: Nick Ritchie (ANA)
Projection: A top line power forward with scoring ability. A north-south player who gets to the net-front and has soft hands. Overwhelms defencemen with power and strength. Concerns around creativity and consistent effort level. Compared to Rick Nash by TSN and THW and Jamie Benn by THN.
Outcome: “6-foot-3, 230 pounds. Only three players scored more than this guy. He is tough. He can score. He has beautiful hands. Leafs have enough weak wingers.” Don Cherry’s memorable endorsement of Ritchie, and disappointment that Toronto had selected Nylander instead, did not age particularly well. The powerful skating stride scouts saw in juniors turned out to be plodding when he got to the NHL, and conditioning issues, effort, and on-ice decision-making kept him in the bottom six in his 481 career NHL games between 2015 and 2023. What made Ritchie stand out in the OHL was his physical dominance and scoring touch. What made him stand out in the NHL is how he could not stop himself from taking penalties while being incapable of drawing them; his -0.87 penalty differential rate per 60 minutes is by far the worst of any player since 2014. As with Virtanen, what looked like endless upside turned out to be physical dominance against weaker opponents and a simplistic play-style that couldn’t translate up the lineup in the NHL.
11th Overall Pick: Kevin Fiala (NSH)
Projection: A dynamic top six playmaking winger with excellent hands. An elusive puck-carrier with great skating and creativity in transition. Undersized but strong, and extremely determined although he shies away from physical play away from the puck. Some debate over his two-way game. Compared to Alex Steen by TSN and Phil Kessel by THW.
Outcome: The Predators didn’t fully reap the rewards of their clever pick here, trading Fiala right before he really took off as a legit 1st line scorer, but the player he developed into fits the projection extremely well. His production hasn’t always lived up to his skill level, but he’s scored at a 30-goal, 70-point pace since 2019-20 and has two point-per-game seasons on his resumé. It didn’t hurt that he added two inches and 25 pounds, which maybe slowed him down a little bit but has only helped his ability to control the puck through congested areas and navigate around defencemen. It’s interesting to read discussion of his defensive game at the time of the draft but even that disagreement panned out — at different points in his career he’s been a totally absent defender and an underrated contributor in his own end.
12th Overall Pick: Brendan Perlini (ARI)
Projection: A big top six scoring winger with an exceptional shot and speed, hockey sense, and skill with the puck. Playmaking upside due to his vision. Struggles with consistency, can be invisible at times. Compared to Mike Gartner by TSN and Bobby Ryan by THW.
Outcome: It’s not tough to understand why the 6’3 Perlini, who could skate like the wind and beat goalies from long range with his shot, would intrigue scouts so much, especially since they also saw plus hockey sense and passing ability. At the NHL level, however, the speed and shot turned out to be all that was really on offer. In the strongest stretches of his 262-game NHL career, he was an efficient 5-on-5 goal scorer who could put the puck into the net playing with practically anyone, but he was also one of the least prolific playmakers in the league, a very poor offensive driver, inconsistent in terms of effort without the puck, and streaky. While it was easy to envision him as a future 30-goal scorer, that required forecasting him in a top-line role that was never to be on offer.
13th Overall Pick: Jakub Vrana (WSH)
Projection: A top-six scoring winger with breakaway speed, a quick shot, and the desire to put pucks on net from anywhere. Undersized and with questions about other areas of his game including defence and playmaking. Compared to Jeff Skinner by TSN and Jakub Voracek by THW.
Outcome: At his peak, Vrana was one of the league’s most efficient 5-on-5 scorers, putting the puck in the net at a rate matched only by Auston Matthews and, well, somebody we’ll talk about later. Between 2018-19 and 2022-23, over a span of 252 games, he ranked 2nd in goals per 60 minutes and 19th in points per 60 at 5-on-5, a testament to just how purely skilled he was. Scouts seemed to have a difficult time getting a handle on areas of his game outside of his scoring ability, as there was a lot of disagreement on the quality of his skating, his playmaking, and his defensive commitment. Peak Vrana could create rush offence and breakaways out of nowhere, and whether he was playing with a third line defensive centre or an elite playmaker had zero bearing on his scoring. He was not nearly as effective when play slowed down, however, struggling on the powerplay and in the playoffs, and his degrading defensive game became increasingly difficult to tolerate as his scoring deteriorated and off-ice issues emerged, and by 26 years old he was a waivers regular and by 28 he was out of the NHL.
14th Overall Pick: Julius Honka (DAL)
Projection: A top-four puck-moving offensive defenceman. Terrific skating, shot, and poise with the puck, but undersized and a work in progress defensively. Compared to Sami Vatanen and Slava Voynov by TSN and Erik Karlsson by THW.
Outcome: Honka didn’t hit, playing only 87 NHL games and exceeding 19 minutes in only six of those games (and one after his rookie season). To this day there are still people who think that he was done dirty by the Dallas Stars, who never gained confidence in him, sent him to the minors halfway through his second season, and allowed him to leave to Finland following a trade request at 23. The emergence of John Klingberg and then Miro Heiskanen did him no favours in terms of deployment opportunities, and while he put up reasonably good underlying numbers in sheltered minutes he failed to really force a series of Stars coaches to give him a significant role. His poise with the puck, his signature trait as a prospect, fell off both due to the adjustment to faster and more physical NHL forecheckers and the extent to which he was punished for mistakes, and he did not show dynamic offensive skill.
15th Overall Pick: Dylan Larkin (DET)
Projection: A speedy top-six two-way centre who plays with pace and has the hockey I.Q. and competitiveness to contribute in many ways. A 200-foot player who’s strong on the puck and goes to the net hard. Questions about offensive skill, but likely to wear a letter in the NHL. Compared to Ryan Kesler by TSN and Mikko Koivu by THW.
Outcome: Everyone was confident about Larkin’s ability to play a shut-down, leadership role on an NHL team, but within a few seasons it was clear that he could really contribute offensively as well. Taking on the dubious job of leading the Red Wings rebuild through some very difficult years, Larkin has paced at 70 or more points six times and did in fact end up spending a lot of time as the team captain. Fast, smart, and versatile, he’s a dual threat player who’s easy to deploy because he’s willing and able to fill whatever role is required of him. The microscope is of course on him right now due to his controversial trade request, with some doubting his status as a real number one centre, but while he may not have ever reached the elite heights of the top pivots in the game he has been fully capable of succeeding in a difficult top-line role for the Red Wings, always facing the toughest competition and managing to produce well despite that.
16th Overall Pick: Sonny Milano (CBJ)
Projection: A top-six offensive winger with sensational hands which he uses to open passing lanes. Game is a bit immature, tends to over-handle and make mistakes, but competitive and driven to improve. Undersized and a question mark defensively. Compared to Jaden Schwartz by TSN and TJ Oshie by THW.
Outcome: Milano was a solid contributor when given the chance at the NHL level, but those chances were tough to come by in his 344-game career. He played more than 40 games only five times and was almost always a bottom-sixer, but his 5-on-5 production rates were respectable. As with many finesse players who don’t quite have the skill to be top-six mainstays, Milano seemed to struggle with confidence in Columbus and routinely found himself in coach Tortorella’s doghouse due to turnovers and a lack of strength on the puck, and was ultimately non-tendered by the Ducks even after a productive 2021-22 season (which featured him scoring one of the more memorable goals of the 2020s). He found some success in Washington, but fell out of a full time role there as well. While his defensive metrics were generally fairly good, they weren’t the result of a particularly visible process and his coaches routinely felt the need to shelter him or limit his minutes.
17th Overall Pick: Travis Sanheim (PHI)
Projection: A top-four two-way defenceman with mobility, reach, and the drive to get involved in all areas of the ice. Poised carrying the puck up-ice, although he often settles for the safe play. Not particularly physical but uses his smarts and tools to play a solid defensive game. Lacks stand-out offensive skill. Compared to Ryan McDonagh by TSN and Johnny Boychuk by THW.
Outcome: While he’s never ascended to the top tier of NHL defencemen or appeared on a Norris ballot, Sanheim has had an extremely successful career so far. Since ascending to top-pairing minutes in 2023-24, he’s established himself as one of the most prolific “stuff-doers” in the league, using his skating ability and length to cover ground defensively while enthusiastically jumping up in the play offensively. The prospect described in scouting reports sound a lot like the player he’s developed into, including the elements that hold him back from being a true top player. While he’s been munching big tough minutes for the Flyers, if not for his selection by Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off and the 2026 Olympics he probably would have continued to fly under the radar; they valued his physical tools in a shutdown role even as his occasional tunnel-vision with the puck in transition was a bit frustrating during both tournaments.
18th Overall Pick: Alex Tuch (MIN)
Projection: A top six power forward who combines physical presence, competitiveness, and offensive skill. Has a solid shot off the rush and decent skating for his size. Handling ability adds another dimension to his game aside from the meat-and-potatoes forechecking and net-crashing. Compared to Wayne Simmonds by TSN and Blake Wheeler by THW.
Outcome: Tuch was the type of prospect that usually has a pretty good shot at panning out in at least some capacity, although we’ve certainly seen plenty of power forwards in this series who topped out physically as teenagers and could never get to an NHL level. The skill element of his game was what gave him more exciting upside, and huge improvement in terms of skating speed and playmaking got him to the upper echelons of his projection. As easy as it was to envision Tuch playing a third-wheel, net-front utility role in a middle six (as he often did for Vegas after they acquired him during the expansion draft), after being acquired by the Sabres in the Jack Eichel trade he emerged as a guy who could really drive a line, attacking off the rush and making the players around him better.
19th Overall Pick: Tony DeAngelo (TB)
Projection: A pure offensive defenceman who plays a run-and-gun game with great wheels, a high-end shot, and dual-threat puck-moving and -carrying in transition. Excellent on the powerplay. Under-sized but plays with an edge. Takes lots of risks to keep offence alive and has trouble in his own zone. Compared to Mike Green by THW.
Outcome: On paper, DeAngelo’s NHL career has been very successful, especially relative to his draft position: he’ll surpass 500 games played, he’s scored over a half-point per game, and has played quite a few seasons as a top-four defenceman including a couple above 22 minutes a night. He was billed as the most offensively-skilled defenceman in the draft, and you can make a solid case that he turned out to be just that. All that said, it’s been far from smooth sailing. During his draft year, DeAngelo was suspended by the OHL for calling his own teammate a slur during a game in addition to several penalties and a suspension for abuse of official. His production in his post-draft year and then in the AHL with Syracuse was stellar, but rumours of behavioural problems abounded and his defensive play continued to be brutal, leading the Bolts to flip him to Arizona, where he again got suspended for abuse of official and was traded again, this time to the Rangers where he continued to have issues and was eventually waived and bought out after an altercation with a teammate. He hopped teams a few times after that, including another buy-out and a KHL spell, but landed on his feet with the Islanders where he’s enjoyed a pretty drama-free run so far. He remains a dangerous player in the offensive zone, a creative dual threat from the point, but on the flip side analytically DeAngelo has been the worst defensive player in the NHL since the draft, ranking comfortably last in even strength defensive WAR per game and per 60 minutes. That trade-off is more tolerable when there’s less going on off the ice.
20th Overall Pick: Nick Schmaltz (CHI)
Projection: A top six playmaking centre with lots of skill and elite vision as a playmaker. Dynamic and agile and can beat defencemen with his feet and hands. Defence is a question-mark, and there are concerns about motor, intensity, and physical competitiveness. Compared to Bryan Little by THW.
Outcome: Schmaltz’s skill was highly lauded in his draft year but he had some serious doubters who saw him as soft, lazy perimeter player who drifted by on skill alone. As it turned out, his high-I.Q. playmaking game was very projectable, and after two years in the NCAA he made the leap to the Blackhawks and quickly established himself as a productive player. He scored at a roughly 50 point pace from 2017-18 to 2020-21 before taking another leap with the Coyotes and pacing above 70 points in three of the past five seasons; an eight-year, $8 million AAV contract was the results. While he’s not exactly known for his physical dominance or forechecking, Schmaltz hasn’t been a defensive liability by any stretch and his perimeter play has turned out to be pretty effective as he’s adept at taking pucks off the wall and finding linemates in dangerous areas.
21st Overall Pick: Robby Fabbri (STL)
Projection: A dynamic top-six playmaking centre with speed, skill, and competitiveness. Undersized but fearless with a top-end work ethic. Great hands and vision with a plus shot, needs to get bigger and work on defensive awareness. Compared to Zach Parise by THW and Mike Cammalleri by TSN.
Outcome: Fabbri carved out a very respectable 446-game NHL career, but most would agree that plenty was left on the table here, due in large part to injuries. He joined the Blues roster in his draft + 2 season and scored at a 20-goal, 40-point pace in the regular season followed by 15 points in 20 games in the playoffs. Then the knee injuries started, a procession of ACL tears that forced him to miss much of the 2016-17 and 2018-19 campaigns, not to mention the entire 2017-18 season. All in all, he missed 46% of his games over the course of his career; nonetheless, on a per-game basis he was a reasonably consistent producer thanks to his great shot and hands. However, speed and elusiveness were a major facet of his game as a prospect and without them, his defensive impact crumbled. He played bigger than his size physically, but he ranks among the most negative-impact even strength defensive forwards since the draft. Nonetheless, he deserves full credit for persevering through what must have been incredibly frustrating obstacles.
22nd Overall Pick: Kasperi Kapanen (PIT)
Projection: A top-six two-way scoring winger with strong speed and good shooting ability. High hockey I.Q. and vision. Versatile and willing to contribute defensively. Compared to Kyle Okposo by THW and Patrick Sharp by TSN.
Outcome: When the skill isn’t quite enough to turn a prospect into an impact player, versatility can be the key to a long NHL career. Kapanen will surpass the 600 game mark sometime this coming season, not bad at all for a 22nd pick and especially not for a player who’s been waived twice. He had a reasonably productive prime between 2018 and 2021, but he was never a player who could drive his own unit and his rushing game required defensive sacrifices that were left him net-negative. However, his foot-speed and willingness to work without the puck (including by killing penalties) have allowed him to play a bottom-six role, which he’s still playing with the Oilers.
23rd Overall Pick: Conner Bleackley (COL)
Projection: A heart-and-soul competitive middle-six centre who can be trusted in all situations. Shot-first player. Smart and versatile with excellent leadership skills. Compared to Derek Stepan by THW and Brandon Sutter by TSN.
Outcome: The only player on our list today with zero NHL games to his name, Bleackley is one of the bigger draft misses of the 2010s, part of the rare category of first round selections who weren’t even really good enough for the AHL, let alone the big leagues. Scouts were taken with the fact that he was already team captain for Red Deer under Brent Sutter at 18, and there was a ton of talk about intangibles and hard work and not a whole lot about separating skill or any particular area of his game. The excitement was dulled when he turned up to Avs camp out of shape, lost the Red Deer captaincy, and completely stagnated in two more CHL campaigns before being traded to Arizona and then allowed to re-enter the draft, where he was picked in the fifth round. He played 133 AHL games at a 0.25 point-per-game pace and a lot more in the ECHL before retiring in 2024.
24th Overall Pick: Jared McCann (VAN)
Projection: A top-six two-way scoring centre with a dangerous release from the hashmarks. Versatile, smart, and well-rounded offensively. Hard-working but undersized. Compared to Derek Stepan by THW and David Krejci by TSN.
Outcome: Four NHL teams lucked out by getting McCann in their organization before messing it up. The Canucks traded him for Erik Gudbranson, the Panthers traded him for Derick Brassard, the Penguins traded him for Filip Hallander, and the Leafs let him go in the expansion draft to keep Alex Kerfoot. Now he’s the leading goal-scorer and point producer in Seattle Kraken franchise history. His effective two-way game showed up early in his NHL tenure as he adjusted to the league’s physicality, but the emergence of his shot as a deadly weapon around the high slot turned him into one of the game’s more efficient 5-on-5 snipers. He’s scored at a 30-goal pace four times in five years with the Kraken while being a reliable 60-point second line centre.
25th Overall Pick: David Pastrnak (BOS)
Projection: A flashy top-six scoring winger with outstanding hands, elusive skating, a dangerous shot, and good speed. Loves to take on defenders one-on-one and make creative high-risk high-reward plays, almost to a fault. Doesn’t handle physicality well, can retreat to the perimeter in intense games, opinions are mixed about his defensive game. Compared to Ales Hemsky by THW and Justin Williams by TSN.
Outcome: Tough to complain about getting a 60-goal, 110-point scoring winger at the end of the first round. It seems as though scouts had trouble fully getting a handle on him; his energy, skill, and audacious style come across in most reports with pretty wise disagreement about his details without the puck and the extent to which his size hindered him. What you don’t see much in the reports is a star-upside projection or confidence in his goal-scoring ability. While it was generally understood that he would require serious seasoning in the Swedish league before he was physically ready for the NHL, he in fact needed zero; instead, he scored over a point-per game in the AHL as an 18-year old before getting promoted to the show in January and scoring at a 48-point pace. By 2016-17 he was flirting with a point-per-game and soon after that he was established as one of the true elite players in the game. Since the draft at 5-on-5 he ranks third in goal rate, sixth in primary assist rate, and third in primary point rate. He’s been one of the league’s most electrifying players and has never had any reason to discard his high-octane one-on-one game, with the turnovers scouts were fretting about hardly mattering in the grand scheme of things. He’s both one of the best finishers and passers in the game and has outscored the Bruins’ second-highest producer by an average of 41 points in the past three seasons.
26th Overall Pick: Nikita Scherbak (MTL)
Projection: A dynamic second line playmaking winger with high versatility and offensive awareness. Needs a lot of work defensively and needs to fill out. Compared to Marian Gaborik by THW and Jakub Voracek by TSN.
Outcome: When teams were hesitant about Pastrnak, it’s probably in part because of the risk of his career going to the way Scherbak’s did. Like Pastrnak, Scherbak was widely considered a project player who needed a lot of development before he would be ready for an NHL role; unlike Pastrnak, he actually was. After stagnating in juniors, Scherbak slowly but surely improved in the AHL and showed a bit of promise and flashes of brilliance in a short third-line showcase for the Habs in late 2017-18, but he couldn’t get a spot on the team the next season, went to LA on waivers, and didn’t give the Kings a reason to keep him around. His tools were solid, but he had too much trouble processing the game at NHL speed to work in the top six and couldn’t earn trust lower in the lineup. He even had trouble in the KHL and is currently playing in Austria.
27th Overall Pick: Nikolay Goldobin (S.J)
Projection: A skilled second-line offensive winger with great vision, creativity, and hands. Easily knocked off the puck and lost in his own end. Compared to Alex Semin by THW and Alex Tanguay by TSN.
Outcome: The Sharks bet on skill with the boom-or-bust Goldobin, and like many players of his profile that go late in the first round, he couldn’t make it work. After some AHL success he was traded to the Canucks and was given the opportunity to establish himself in an offensive role, but earned the ire of the coaching staff with lackadasical defensive play, weakness along the wall, and reckless puck-handling. He wasn’t good enough to hang at the top of the line-up and showed no signs of being anything but a liability lower on the depth chart. Thankfully for him, the KHL is a bit more forgiving of those tendencies than NHL coaches, and he’s been tearing it up there since the pandemic.
28th Overall Pick: Josh Ho-Sang (NYI)
Projection: A boom-or-bust playmaker with undeniable skill. Speedy and crafty with the puck and has real passing skill, but can be a puck hog nonetheless. Significant questions around coachability, selfish on-ice play, and consistency. Compared to Taylor Hall by THW and Mike Ribeiro by TSN.
Outcome: Arguably the most polarizing player in the draft, Ho-Sang appeared on several teams’ “do not draft” lists. His uncompromising self-belief, rumours of bad behaviour in junior, and blunt honestly in public interviews — in a pre-draft Toronto Sun article he was quoted describing himself as the best player in the draft, criticizing his OHL linemates, and speculating about his marketability — went well against the grain of the way prospects usually present themselves, and it put a big scare into a lot of teams. What happened next has been the subject of a lot of discussion over the years, but I think the generally-accepted story is that the way Ho-Sang operated didn’t vibe with the way pro hockey teams are generally run. He was disciplined several times for lateness (including opening day of 2015 training camp), complained to reporters, publicly took issue with how he was treated by the organization, and requested a trade even after passing through waivers. In terms of play, he had showed some legit NHL-calibre offensive skill but the Isles were unhappy with his defence and turnovers. Some, including myself, thought he had taken strides his final stint with the Isles, but he evidently earned a short rope and ultimately it seems like teams saw him as too much of a headache to take him on. He eventually ended up jumping around leagues before retiring and becoming a rapper.
29th Overall Pick: Adrian Kempe (L.A)
Projection: A fast top nine winger with a versatile skill-set. Plays hard, competing on the forecheck, and doesn’t take shifts off. Decent size, offensive upside is up in the air. Compared to Brandon Dubinsky by THW.
Outcome: The fact that Kempe played against men in his draft year helped scouts project him in the NHL, but his fourth-line deployment made it an open question what his offensive upside actually was. Turns out it was pretty high. Kempe might not be a star-level driver, but he’s developed into a consistent 35-goal scorer in the past five seasons and has paced above 70 points in the past three. His rush offence has become a major asset for the Kings, using his foot-speed both on and off the puck to create problems in transition and unleash his catch-and-shoot wrister. Not bad for a player that some scouts expected to settle in as a depth checker.
30th Overall Pick: John Quenneville (N.J)
Projection: A bottom-six two-way forward who brings a smart, low-flash, versatile game. Plays any forward position, works hard, sees the ice well. Competent in most areas of the game. Compared to Nick Bonino by THW.
Outcome: Considered a high-floor, limited-ceiling pick, Quenneville seemed primed to establish himself as an NHL contributor but it just never really happened. His unexceptional junior production but broadly decent skill-set would have seemed to foreshadow a player who wouldn’t put up a points in the minors but would nonetheless earn a depth spot in the big leagues, but instead the opposite happened. He was a great AHLer, using his smarts and all-around ability to find soft ice and produce, but in his short stints in the NHL he was inconsistent and just didn’t show a whole lot as his lack of any separating ability or physical traits made him just another body out there. This was yet another case of the ceiling being lower than the “high floor,” as he was moved to Chicago in a depth swap in 2019 and retired with five points in 42 career games.