Coming Soon
This page will contain the full methodology for our standings projection model, including how we estimate team strength, the simulation process, and how we handle injuries and roster changes.
How It Works
Our standings projections are powered by a Monte Carlo simulation that runs the remainder of the NHL season millions of times. Each simulation uses our WAR-based team strength estimates to determine game outcomes, accounting for factors like home ice advantage.
The Process
1
Estimate Team Strength
Sum player WAR values for each team's projected roster
2
Calculate Win Probabilities
Convert team strength differential into game-by-game win probabilities
3
Simulate Remaining Games
Run each remaining game using the calculated probabilities
4
Aggregate Results
Repeat millions of times to get probability distributions for standings, playoffs, and Cup