Tampa Bay Lightning
Playoff Odds

Proj. Pts

105

Playoff %

90%

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Playoff Outcome Probabilities

Outcome	Probability
Miss Playoffs	10.4%
Lose Round 1	33.6%
Lose Round 2	23.9%
Lose Round 3	13.5%
Lose SCF	8.3%
Win Cup	10.3%

• Miss Playoffs
• Lose Round 1
• Lose Round 2
• Lose Round 3
• Lose SCF
• Win Cup

• Miss Playoffs
• Lose Round 1
• Lose Round 2
• Lose Round 3
• Lose SCF
• Win Cup

Lightning Round 1 Matchup Odds

14%

13%

12%

🏌️

10%

9%

7%

7%

4%

4%

4%

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

1%

Tampa Bay Lightning Round 1 Playoff Matchup Probabilities

Opponent	Probability
Ottawa Senators	14.0%
Buffalo Sabres	13.0%
Florida Panthers	11.5%
miss_playoffs	10.4%
Montreal Canadiens	8.8%
Toronto Maple Leafs	7.2%
Boston Bruins	6.9%
New York Rangers	4.2%
Pittsburgh Penguins	4.1%
Carolina Hurricanes	4.0%
New Jersey Devils	4.0%
Washington Capitals	3.9%
Columbus Blue Jackets	2.8%
Philadelphia Flyers	2.4%
New York Islanders	1.7%
Detroit Red Wings	1.0%

The Tampa Bay Lightning have a 90% chance of making the 2026-27 Stanley Cup Playoffs, projected to finish 2nd in the Atlantic Division. Their most likely 1st round opponent is the Ottawa Senators (14% chance of this particular matchup) and they have a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.