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Tampa Bay Lightning
Playoff Chances

Proj. Pts
107
Playoff %
100%
Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Playoff Outcome Probabilities
OutcomeProbability
Lose Round 129.3%
Lose Round 226.0%
Lose Round 318.2%
Lose SCF12.0%
Win Cup14.5%
  • Lose Round 1
  • Lose Round 2
  • Lose Round 3
  • Lose SCF
  • Win Cup

Lightning Round 1 Matchup Odds

MTL
>99%
Tampa Bay Lightning Round 1 Playoff Matchup Probabilities
OpponentProbability
Montreal Canadiens100.0%

The Tampa Bay Lightning currently have a >99% chance of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs, ranking 2nd in the Atlantic Division with a record of 50-25-6. Their most likely 1st round opponent is the Montreal Canadiens (>99% chance of this particular matchup) and they have a 14% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Projections, playoff odds, and Stanley Cup odds from HockeyStats.com simulation model, updated every 5 minutes. Team strength estimated from player WAR (used in JFresh Player Cards), then season and playoffs simulated 300K times. Full playoff odds page here. Methodology here.

Last Updated: Apr 14, 2026, 1:31 AM EST

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