Tampa Bay Lightning
Playoff Odds
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Draft 1st Overall | 0.2% |
| Miss Playoffs | 13.1% |
| Lose Round 1 | 32.6% |
| Lose Round 2 | 22.9% |
| Lose Round 3 | 13.2% |
| Lose SCF | 7.9% |
| Win Cup | 10.3% |
- Draft 1st Overall
- Miss Playoffs
- Lose Round 1
- Lose Round 2
- Lose Round 3
- Lose SCF
- Win Cup
- Draft 1st Overall
- Miss Playoffs
- Lose Round 1
- Lose Round 2
- Lose Round 3
- Lose SCF
- Win Cup
Lightning Round 1 Matchup Odds
| Opponent | Probability |
|---|---|
| miss_playoffs | 13.1% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 11.8% |
| Florida Panthers | 11.2% |
| Ottawa Senators | 10.4% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 9.7% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 7.7% |
| Boston Bruins | 7.3% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 4.1% |
| New Jersey Devils | 4.0% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 3.9% |
| New York Rangers | 3.8% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 3.8% |
| Washington Capitals | 3.3% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 2.9% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 1.7% |
| New York Islanders | 1.1% |
The Tampa Bay Lightning have a 87% chance of making the 2026-27 Stanley Cup Playoffs, projected to finish 2nd in the Atlantic Division. Their most likely 1st round opponent is the Buffalo Sabres (12% chance of this particular matchup) and they have a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
2026-27 projections, playoff odds, and Stanley Cup odds from the HockeyStats.com simulation model, updated every 15 minutes as offseason moves happen. Team strength estimated from player WAR (used in JFresh Player Cards), then season and playoffs simulated 100K times. See how trades and signings change these odds in the Roster Builder. Full playoff odds page here. Methodology here.
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