Toronto Maple Leafs
Playoff Odds
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Draft 1st Overall | 2.1% |
| Miss Playoffs | 59.7% |
| Lose Round 1 | 24.3% |
| Lose Round 2 | 9.8% |
| Lose Round 3 | 3.8% |
| Lose SCF | 1.5% |
| Win Cup | 1.0% |
- Draft 1st Overall
- Miss Playoffs
- Lose Round 1
- Lose Round 2
- Lose Round 3
- Lose SCF
- Win Cup
- Draft 1st Overall
- Miss Playoffs
- Lose Round 1
- Lose Round 2
- Lose Round 3
- Lose SCF
- Win Cup
Maple Leafs Round 1 Matchup Odds
| Opponent | Probability |
|---|---|
| miss_playoffs | 59.7% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 9.1% |
| Florida Panthers | 8.9% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 4.8% |
| Ottawa Senators | 3.2% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 2.5% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 2.2% |
| New Jersey Devils | 2.0% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 2.0% |
| Boston Bruins | 2.0% |
| New York Rangers | 1.0% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 0.9% |
| Washington Capitals | 0.7% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 0.6% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 0.3% |
| New York Islanders | 0.2% |
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a 40% chance of making the 2026-27 Stanley Cup Playoffs, projected to finish 11th in East. Their most likely 1st round opponent is the Tampa Bay Lightning (9% chance of this particular matchup) and they have a 1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
2026-27 projections, playoff odds, and Stanley Cup odds from the HockeyStats.com simulation model, updated every 15 minutes as offseason moves happen. Team strength estimated from player WAR (used in JFresh Player Cards), then season and playoffs simulated 100K times. See how trades and signings change these odds in the Roster Builder. Full playoff odds page here. Methodology here.
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