NHL PLAYOFF PICTURE (25-26)
Projections and odds from HockeyStats.com simulation model, updated nightly. Team strength is estimated from player WAR (used in JFresh Player Cards), then season and playoffs simulated 1M times. Full playoff odds methodology.
Last Updated: Dec 27, 2025, 11:11 AM PST
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Model:
| Team | Points(Pace) | Points(Proj.) | PlayoffOdds | StanleyCupOdds | Pick1st | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAC | VGKVegas Golden Knights | 103 | 103 | 100% | 13% | 0.0% | |
| ANAAnaheim Ducks | 98 | 91 | 78% | 1% | 0.9% | ||
| EDMEdmonton Oilers | 95 | 94 | 89% | 3% | 0.4% | ||
CEN | COLColorado Avalanche | 139 | 121 | 100% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| DALDallas Stars | 121 | 109 | 100% | 8% | 0.0% | ||
| MINMinnesota Wild | 108 | 97 | 95% | 1% | 0.1% | ||
WC | L.ALos Angeles Kings | 89 | 89 | 63% | 1.0% | 2% | |
| SEASeattle Kraken | 84 | 78 | 10% | 0.0% | 10% | ||
| UTAUtah Mammoth | 82 | 87 | 55% | 1% | 2% | ||
| NSHNashville Predators | 82 | 81 | 18% | 0.0% | 7% | ||
| S.JSan Jose Sharks | 82 | 78 | 8% | 0.0% | 11% | ||
| STLSt. Louis Blues | 78 | 81 | 20% | 0.2% | 7% | ||
| WPGWinnipeg Jets | 77 | 85 | 42% | 0.8% | 4% | ||
| CGYCalgary Flames | 75 | 78 | 10% | 0.1% | 9% | ||
| VANVancouver Canucks | 75 | 78 | 10% | 0.0% | 10% | ||
| CHIChicago Blackhawks | 73 | 75 | 4% | 0.0% | 13% | ||
| Team | Points(Pace) | Points(Proj.) | PlayoffOdds | StanleyCupOdds | Pick1st | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MET | CARCarolina Hurricanes | 107 | 103 | 97% | 11% | 0.0% | |
| PHIPhiladelphia Flyers | 103 | 90 | 38% | 0.2% | 2% | ||
| NYINew York Islanders | 98 | 88 | 31% | 0.1% | 2% | ||
ATL | DETDetroit Red Wings | 101 | 92 | 54% | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| MTLMontreal Canadiens | 100 | 92 | 55% | 1% | 0.8% | ||
| T.BTampa Bay Lightning | 98 | 102 | 96% | 15% | 0.0% | ||
WC | FLAFlorida Panthers | 96 | 92 | 55% | 1% | 1% | |
| WSHWashington Capitals | 95 | 98 | 85% | 8% | 0.2% | ||
| OTTOttawa Senators | 93 | 90 | 43% | 0.8% | 1% | ||
| BUFBuffalo Sabres | 91 | 93 | 61% | 3% | 0.7% | ||
| N.JNew Jersey Devils | 91 | 94 | 68% | 3% | 0.5% | ||
| PITPittsburgh Penguins | 89 | 89 | 34% | 0.7% | 2% | ||
| BOSBoston Bruins | 88 | 86 | 20% | 0.2% | 3% | ||
| NYRNew York Rangers | 88 | 85 | 17% | 0.1% | 4% | ||
| TORToronto Maple Leafs | 84 | 88 | 30% | 0.9% | 3% | ||
| CBJColumbus Blue Jackets | 82 | 86 | 18% | 0.4% | 4% | ||
Metric Definitions
Projection Metrics
- Points (Pace)
- The points a team would earn playing 82 games at exactly their current points percentage. (Rounded to nearest integer).
- Points (Proj.)
- Projected total points for the full 82-game season based on simulation model.
- Playoff Odds
- Probability of making the playoffs.
- Stanley Cup Odds
- Probability of winning the Stanley Cup.
- Pick 1st
- Probability of drafting 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft.
Note: Playoff picture uses Points Pace when teams have played unequal games (with tiebreakers also applied on a per-game basis), which reflects the NHL's behavior.
Charts use the projection model selected above: HockeyStats.com
Win Cup
→Make SCF
→Win Round 2
→Win Round 1
→Make Playoffs
Miss Playoffs
Draft 1st Overall